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XRP price will fall to new lows vs. Bitcoin if this famous chart pattern plays out


25 Jun 2021

#XRP

XRP price bulls watch out! The popular Head and Shoulder pattern is statistically among the most accurate trend indicators. Ripple blockchain's native token XRP could make a full bearish price swing against Bitcoin (BTC), as per a classic technical indicator.

Dubbed as Head and Shoulders (H&S), the pattern develops when an asset forms three peaks atop a common baseline. The outside peaks, known as Shoulders, are close in height, while the middle one, called the Head, is the highest.

The H&S pattern is completed when the asset breaks below its baselines support, with high volumes, confirming a negative breakout. The so-called neckline also serves as the most common entry point for bearish traders as they target deeper downside levels. Though not every time, an H&S pattern's profit target comes to be equal to the distance between the pattern's high point and its neckline.

All-time low ahead

Peter Brandt, the CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm he established in 1980, sees the XRP/BTC instrument painting an H&S pattern. In a tweet published early Friday, Brandt raised speculation that the bearish indicator might prompt the Ripple token to turn into "a tidal wave" against Bitcoin. The veteran trader added:

"Completion of the [H&S pattern] would set [XRP/BTC] target at all-time-lows."

The total distance between the H&S pattern's top and its baselines comes out to be around 1,794 satoshis. Meanwhile, the neckline support coincides with 2,120 satoshis. Therefore, the profit target in XRP/BTC's case is (2,120-1,794), i.e., 326 satoshis.

Support levels ahead

But as XRP/BTC approaches its record low levels, the pair would still need to pass through a series of strong support levels.  The XRP/BTC exchange rate bounced off its 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA; the saffron wave) support at 1,696 satoshis. Should the pair sustain above the wave, the likelihood of retesting the H&S neckline around 2,120 satoshis is high. Meanwhile, a close above 2,120 satoshis would invalidate the H&S structure.

On the other hand, breaking below 200-day SMA exposes XRP/BTC to the next line of support near 1,555 satoshis. The level was instrumental in pushing the pair up by more than 170% in November 2020. Nonetheless, its Volume Profile shows a weaker trading activity in recent history, raising possibilities that it won't be able to handle strong selling volumes as the H&S breakout accelerates.

The last line of defense, as per the Volume Profile indicator, sits at 847 satoshis, more than twice above the H&S profit target of 326 satoshis.

XRP/USD

Against the US dollar, XRP continued trending lower in its months-old descending channel pattern, while promising short-term upside opportunities. The XRP/USD rebounded by up to 44.53% after testing the Channel's support trendline on June 22. The pair's move uphill had it test $0.69 as its interim resistance as bulls targeted an extended push towards $0.78.

The $0.69-level has served as the resistance between November 2020 and April 2021. Meanwhile, the $0.78-level capped XRP/USD from extending its downside bias throughout May 2021.


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