Bitcoin (BTC) Reviews for February 2023

Bitcoin and altcoins started the week in the red, but if this week’s Federal Reserve meeting aligns with investors’ general expectations, the wider crypto market could quickly rebound. Traders tend to lighten up positions before important events because they hate uncertainty. The United States Federal Reserve’s next policy decision is on Feb. 1, when the central bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points. Market observers will keenly watch for any hints about how high the rates could go. That could be one of the reasons for the profit-booking in Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s sharp recovery in January could also be signaling the start of a new bull market, according to certain on-chain metrics. The Profit and Loss Index from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has given its first buy signal since 2019. Blockware Solutions head analyst Joe Burnett believes that Bitcoin will not break above its all-time high of $69,000 until the next Bitcoin halving, which is scheduled to occur in March 2024. Burnett anticipates Bitcoin’s next bull market top will be between $150,000 to $350,000, which is a massive increase from the current levels.

Bitcoin shot up to $21,258 on Jan. 13 and that propelled the relative strength index (RSI) above 89, signaling that the rally was overheated in the short term. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at $21,500. Sometimes, when a trend change happens, the RSI may remain in the overbought territory for a long time. If the BTC/USDT pair does not give up much ground from the current level, it will suggest that traders are in no hurry to book profits as they anticipate another leg higher. If buyers kick the price above $21,500, the pair could climb to $22,800. This level may again act as a major roadblock. On the way down, the bears will have to drag the price below the psychological level of $20,000 to make a dent in the bullish momentum. The pair could then slump to the breakout level of $18,388.

Bitcoin rose above the moving averages on Jan. 4 but the bulls could not clear the hurdle at $17,061. This shows that bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance. Although the price tumbled below the moving averages on Jan. 6, the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels. The bulls may make one more attempt to drive the price above $17,061. If they succeed, the BTC/Tether pair could pick up momentum and rally to $17,854 and then to $18,138. On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, it will indicate that the pair may consolidate in the narrow range of $17,061 to $16,256 for a while longer.

The crypto market is up today and Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and numerous altcoins rallied after data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Jan. 4 which showed slower demand and lower input prices for manufactures which gave investors positive expectations that the Federal Reserve may reduce future interest rate hikes and a cooling US Dollar. Despite the strength of today’s rally, its longevity remains under question as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Jan. 4 to hint at the size of future interest rate hikes. Crypto and equities markets responded positively ahead of the Jan. 6 nonfarm payrolls report and the cooling supply chain figures shown below could form the basis for softer rate hikes going forward.

BTC price retraced all of its intraday gains after Fed chair Jerome Powell issued hawkish statements related to the central bank's 50 basis point interest rate hike. On Dec. 14, Bitcoin BTC price hit a one-month high and saw a brief resurgence in bullish momentum, but a hawkish report by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell sent BTC to an intraday low at $17,659. Stocks and Bitcoin started the day slightly up but quickly retracted on the FOMC report. To date, Bitcoin price remains closely correlated to equities and a majority of investors have concerns about the impact of further rate increases in the future.

The bulls successfully held the $16,787 support on Dec. 7, indicating strong demand at lower levels. Buyers propelled Bitcoin back above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $17,004 on Dec. 8. The flat 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint suggest a possible range-bound action in the near term. Usually, tight-range trading is followed by a range expansion, which leads to a trending move. At times, the first breakout tends to be a fake move, hence traders could wait for a confirmation before jumping on to take the trade. If the price breaks above the resistance zone between $17,622 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $18,046, the BTC/Tether pair could signal a potential trend change. The pair could then attempt a rally to $20,000 and later to $21,500. Conversely, if the price breaks below $16,787, the bears will try to pull the pair to the pivotal support at $15,476.

After trading near the 20-day EMA of $16,979 for the past four days, Bitcoin attempted a move higher on Dec. 5. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests selling at higher levels. The bears are expected to defend the overhead zone between $17,622 and the 50-day SMA of $18,223 with vigor. If the price turns down from the zone but does not break below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That could increase the likelihood of a rally to $20,000 and thereafter to $21,500. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the BTC/Tether pair could remain range-bound between $15,476 and $18,200 for a few days.

Bitcoin and altcoins are beginning to flash signals of a potential trend change, but a handful of downside risks remain. Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 263,000 in November, exceeding economists’ expectations of an increase of 200,000. Analysts believe that the numbers remain hot and do not allow much scope for the Federal Reserve to slow down its aggressive rate hikes. This is contrary to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks delivered at the Brookings Institution, where he said that the central bank could reduce the pace of rate hikes “as soon as December.” That triggered a sharp rally in risk assets. After the latest jobs report, the market participants will closely watch the Fed’s comments and decision in its Dec. 13 and Dec.14 meeting.

Bitcoin has shrugged off the weakness in the United States equities markets and is attempting to start a recovery on Nov. 30. Buyers are attempting to achieve a monthly close above $17,000. This suggests that the selling that had picked up due to the FTX crisis may be reducing. Usually, smaller investors panic and dump their holdings in a bear market but it has been the opposite with Bitcoin investors. According to Glassnode data released on Nov. 27, investors holding less than one Bitcoin, also called shrimps, bought 96,200 Bitcoin since the FTX crash. Along similar lines, investors holding between 1 to 10 Bitcoin, classified as crabs, bought 191,600 Bitcoin over the past 30 days. This shows investors are continuing to accumulate at lower levels. However, a sharp recovery in Bitcoin’s price is unlikely for some time. Trading firm QCP Capital believes that the United States Consumer Price Index data on Dec. 13 and the U.S. Fed’s policy decision on Dec. 14 could act as risk factors because many investors could be “forced to continually sell assets to raise liquidity.” QCP expects the situation to turn around only in the second or third quarter of next year after the Fed possibly pivots and releases liquidity in the system.

Bitcoin turned up from $15,995 on Nov. 28 and broke above the developing descending triangle pattern on Nov. 30. This invalidated the bearish setup and may have attracted buying from the bulls who are trying to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $16,910. A close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bears may be losing their grip. The BTC/Tether $1.00 pair could then rally to $17,622 and later to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $18,434. The sellers are expected to defend this zone with vigor. If the price turns down from the overhead zone but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. That could increase the possibility of a rally to $20,000 and then to $21,500. Another possibility is that the price turns down from $17,622. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $15,476 and $17,622 for some more time.

The most likely culprit was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance cold wallet on Nov. 28. The huge Bitcoin transaction immediately triggered fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently announced it was part of an auditing process. Regulatory pressure has also been limiting BTC’s upside after reports on Nov. 25 showed that cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms were under investigation by securities regulators in the United States. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission, confirmed that its state and several other states are investigating Genesis' alleged ties to securities laws violation.

Bitcoin remains in a downtrend. The bears pulled the price below the immediate support of $16,229 on Nov. 21, which suggests a lack of demand from the bulls. If the price sustains below $16,229, the BTC/Tether pair could retest the vital support at $15,588. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then start its downward journey toward $12,200. On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks back above $16,229, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips below $16,000. The bulls will then attempt to push the price toward the overhead resistance at $17,190.

Bitcoin broke and closed below the June low of $17,622 on Nov. 9. This marked the resumption of the downtrend. Although the bulls tried to stage a strong recovery on Nov. 10, their efforts met with heavy selling above $17,622. This suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $18,271 has turned down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory. This suggests that the bears have the upper hand. If the price sustains below $17,622, it will increase the prospect of a break below $15,588, If that happens, the BTC/Tether (USDT) pair could extend its decline to $12,200. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The pair could then challenge the psychological level at $20,000.

Bitcoin price dips under $17.6K June low as FTX nerves liquidate nearly $1B. BTC price pressure sees sellers take out existing two-year macro lows, but optimism over a relief “pump” is building. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed carnage across crypto price charts as exchange FTX kept the mood low. After initially rebounding over $20,000 on news that the embattled FTX might be bought out by competitor Binance, panic returned after the Wall Street open. BTC/USD lost $2,000 in under two hours, seeing a sudden plunge that set a low of $17,120 on Bitstamp. The last time the pair traded at that level was in late November 2020, meaning Bitcoin managed to beat the previous macro lows of $17,600 set in June this year.

Bitcoin could become the foundation of DeFi with more single-sided liquidity pools. More options for single-sided Bitcoin staking could lead to a consolidation of decentralized exchange aggregators - meaning improved liquidity for users. For many years, Ethereum reigned supreme over the decentralized finance (DeFi) landscape, with the blockchain serving as the destination of choice for many of the most innovative projects serving up their take on decentralized finance. More recently, however, DeFi projects have started to crop up across multiple ecosystems, challenging Ethereum’s hegemony. And, as we look to a future in which the technical problem of interoperability is solved, one unlikely contender for the role of DeFi power player emerges - Bitcoin BTC tickers down $17,935. In that future, Bitcoin plays potentially the most important role in DeFi - and not in a triumphalist, maximalist sense. Rather, Bitcoin can complement the rest of crypto as the centerpiece of multichain DeFi. The key to this is connecting it all together so that Bitcoin can interact with Ethereum as seamlessly as iOS and Android do today. An argument in favor of harmonizing Bitcoin with DeFi may come as a surprise. Commentators often pit the incumbent Bitcoin blockchain against its more agile and functional counterpart, Ethereum. The real “flippening,” however, is connecting DeFi to Bitcoin. Doing so gives users the best of both worlds, combining the dexterity of Ethereum with the purity of Bitcoin. The debate revolves around what a Bitcoin-enabled DeFi industry looks like or if it is even possible to accomplish.

Bitcoin is attempting to bounce off the first support at $18,843 but the relief rally is likely to hit a wall at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($19,482). If the price turns down from this resistance, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. A break and close below $18,843 could pull the price to the $18,125 to $17,622 support zone. Bulls are expected to defend this zone with all their might because if they fail to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The pair could then drop to $15,800 and later to $15,000. The first sign of relief for the bulls will be a break above the downtrend line and the recovery could pick up steam after the pair rises above $20,500. That could set the stage for a possible rally to $22,800.

Bitcoin price action is currently characterized by volatile moves within a clearly defined range only around $4,000 across. Having held since June, this range contains what immediately stands out as a focal point: the prior halving cycle’s all-time high of $20,000. With BTC/USD crossing that threshold frequently, however, traders have long sought alternative lines in the sand when it comes to new trends for the pair. For ARK and the report’s guest contributor, Reflexivity Research co-founder William Clemente, it is $19,000, which could function as important support. This is due to Bitcoin’s so-called investor cost basis — the aggregate price at which the BTC supply was bought, minus the portion owned by miners. “For most of September, bitcoin traded between two major historical levels: its 200-week moving average ($23,500) as resistance and its investor cost basis as support ($19,000),” ARK explained. BTC price is now at $19,000, which is the level that, if violated, would spark considerable losses throughout Bitcoin’s investor base. “As strong holder behavior battles a weak macro environment, resolution to either side will play a significant role in bitcoin’s short- to mid-term performance,” the report adds.

Bitcoin broke above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($21,902) on Sept. 12, but this proved to be a bull trap. Buyers attempted to extend the recovery on Sept. 13 but the rally reversed direction from $22,799. Aggressive selling by the bears pulled the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,722). A minor positive is that the bulls are attempting to stall the decline at $20,000. If buyers push the price back above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The BTC/USDT pair will then attempt to rise to the 50-day SMA and later retest $22,799. A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $25,211. Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below $19,860, the pair could drop to the $18,510 to $17,622 zone. The bulls are expected to defend this zone with vigor.

Bitcoin is attempting to form a bottom. Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,831) on Sept. 9 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($21,944) on Sept. 12. This suggests that the bears may be losing momentum. If buyers sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $25,211. The bears are expected to defend this level with vigor. If the price turns down from this level, the pair could spend some time inside a large range between $18,626 and $25,211. During such periods of consolidation, the weaker hands sell their holdings fearing a further fall while the stronger hands buy expecting that a bottom may be close by. This completes the transfer of assets from the weaker hands to the stronger hands. After the accumulation is complete, the asset usually starts a new bull move. Another possibility is that the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, it will indicate that traders continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then once again revisit the strong support at $18,626.

The total crypto market cap continues to crumble as the dollar index hits a 20 year high. The total crypto market capitalization dropped by 6.9% in one week, while derivatives metrics reflect increasing demand for bearish bets. From a bearish perspective, there’s a fair probability that the crypto market entered a descending channel (or wedge) on Aug. 15 after it failed to break above the $1.2 trillion total market capitalization resistance. Even if the pattern isn’t yet clearly distinguishable, the last couple of weeks have not been positive. For example, the $940 billion total market cap seen on Aug. 29 was the lowest in 43 days. The worsening conditions have been accompanied by a steep correction in traditional markets, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has declined by 12% since Aug. 15 and even WTI oil prices plummeted 11% from Aug. 29 to Sept. 1. Investors sought shelter in the dollar and United States Treasuries after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. As a result, investors took profits on riskier assets, causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to reach its highest level in over two decades at 109.6 on Sept 1. The index measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies.