Glassnode data reveals that investors with a long-term risk outlook have started accumulating Bitcoin during its recent downtrend. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price remained relatively flat over the weekend, inching closer to $34,000 on Sunday. Nevertheless, BTC/USD has tumbled by almost 50% from its all-time high, near $65,000 in mid-April. But the massive downside move has not deterred investors from betting on the digital asset’s long-term bullish outlook.
According to one of the Glassnode metrics, dubbed as Liveliness, the Bitcoin market has been noticing a shift in long-term investors’ “macro hodling behavior.” Hodling represents crypto investors’ ritualized response to market downtrends, a meme-driven investment strategy that originated from a drunken forum post in 2013 and typo.
Meanwhile, Liveliness is the ratio of cumulative coin days destroyed to the cumulative sum of all coin days ever accumulated by the network. It varies between zero and 1, with zero representing the highest proportion of dormant Bitcoin supply — i.e., hodling behavior. It shows that the global coin day accumulation has been outpacing coin days destroyed in on-chain activity.
Nonetheless, a higher degree of distribution does not necessarily predict bearish cycles. For example, between November 2020 and April 2021, the Liveliness Ratio increased alongside the Bitcoin prices, suggesting that despite lower hodling behavior, the Bitcoin market did not enter a bearish phase.
That could be due to massive spikes in trade volumes at the beginning of this year. In the first quarter, Bitcoin trading activity, on the whole, spiked to over $6 trillion, compared to $1.14 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to data obtained from Bitcoinity.
Therefore, while the long-term holders started spending their Bitcoin between November 2020 and April 2021, higher trading volumes across all crypto exchanges showed that retail demand absorbed the selling pressure. But by April, as analyst Willy Woo noted, the selling had overrun the normal bull market buying pressure. Speculative participants started selling off their new coins to long-term holders, Woo wrote in a newsletter published on July 2 while referring to a so-called “Rick Astley” chart that studies Bitcoin flows between strong and weak hands. Excerpts:
“It’s very clear to see that long-term holders are mopping up the speculative coins at a strong pace. It’s now a waiting game until this is reflected in the price action, the data is confidently pointing to an accumulation bottom forming.”
A spike in Bitcoin accumulation sentiment appeared as the cryptocurrency continues to maintain its bullish bias above a strongly held $30,000 support level. The BTC/USD exchange first dropped to the $30,000 level on May 19, during the overall cryptocurrency market crash. Since then, the pair has tested the price floor at least four times, only to witness a strong upside rebound later. That has made $30,000 a psychological support level, which, if broken to the downside, risks crashing Bitcoin’s price to as low as $20,000.
Joel Kruger, a forex strategist at London-based investment management group LMAX, noted earlier this week that Bitcoin could revisit $20,000, for it remains under the pressure of global market sentiment. The analyst was referring to the latest meltdown in stock markets, on worries linked to the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19.
“It would be foolish to rule out the possibility for a drop back below the June low, and we think there would be a risk in that scenario where the #Bitcoin price could revisit the old record high area around $20,000,” he added. “But at that stage, we see the market very well supported.”
|#||Crypto||Prediction||Accuracy||CVIX||Price||24h||7d||Market Cap||7d price change|
|1||BTC||Bitcoin predictions||94%||7||$37 974.79||2.65%||3.21%||$742 620 081 767|
|2||ETH||Ethereum predictions||76%||50||$2 055.28||2.12%||3.49%||$247 134 847 899|
|3||USDT||Tether predictions||91.2%||1||$1.000205||0.02%||-0.01%||$88 917 133 121|
|4||BNB||Binance Coin predictions||83.2%||25||$230.20||1.89%||-4.06%||$34 920 472 818|
|5||XRP||XRP predictions||74.4%||42||$0.611671||2.00%||2.53%||$32 918 272 630|
|6||SOL||Solana predictions||59.2%||87||$58.20||6.66%||8.25%||$24 645 476 442|
|7||USDC||USD Coin predictions||96%||1||$0.999716||-0.02%||-0.02%||$24 482 991 365|
|8||ADA||Cardano predictions||71.6%||62||$0.385539||3.00%||4.21%||$13 608 842 925|
|9||DOGE||Dogecoin predictions||74.8%||48||$0.080387||3.60%||7.77%||$11 416 474 493|
|10||STETH||Lido stETH predictions||94.8%||1||$2 941.39||-0.40%||-3.32%||$10 258 752 564|
|11||TRX||TRON predictions||82.8%||27||$0.103195||0.78%||6.00%||$9 138 361 208|
|12||WTRX||Wrapped TRON predictions||84.4%||30||$0.103028||0.42%||5.47%||$9 123 536 549|
|13||TON||Toncoin predictions||81.6%||31||$2.42||-0.45%||3.16%||$8 314 438 840|
|14||LINK||Chainlink predictions||63.6%||69||$14.57||3.63%||4.11%||$8 113 407 755|
|15||AVAX||Avalanche predictions||58.8%||86||$20.64||2.41%||0.41%||$7 534 681 892|
Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.
© 2015-2023 Crypto-Rating.com
The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.