Conservative BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K
The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement. Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.” In a tweet on Sunday, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics
While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time. Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.
Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.” “In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.
The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.
“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.
The accompanying chart captures when BTC’s price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.
$50,000 first hurdle for bulls
Bitcoin’s supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event. With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, so far, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.
The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.
Thereafter, however, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.
Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions
| # | Crypto | Prediction | Accuracy | CVIX | Price | 24h | 7d | Market Cap | 7d price change | |
| 1 |  BTC |
Bitcoin predictions | 87.6% | 20 | $19 083.51 | -1.06% | 1.40% | $365 781 815 743 |  |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  ETH |
Ethereum predictions | 60.8% | 83 | $1 281.89 | -2.22% | -1.23% | $157 194 265 600 |  |
|
| 3 |  USDT |
Tether predictions | 96% | 1 | $1.000050 | 0% | 0% | $67 952 795 097 |  |
|
| 4 |  USDC |
USD Coin predictions | 91.6% | 1 | $1.000020 | 0.01% | 0% | $47 326 491 868 |  |
|
| 5 |  BNB |
Binance Coin predictions | 90.8% | 14 | $285.57 | 1.14% | 4.15% | $46 073 556 698 |  |
|
| 6 |  XRP |
XRP predictions | 61.2% | 86 | $0.453299 | -4.55% | -8.26% | $22 619 945 926 |  |
|
| 7 |  BUSD |
Binance USD predictions | 95.2% | 1 | $1.000118 | 0.11% | 0.06% | $21 044 705 794 |  |
|
| 8 |  ADA |
Cardano predictions | 78% | 41 | $0.422139 | -2.00% | -5.32% | $14 459 594 259 |  |
|
| 9 |  SOL |
Solana predictions | 82% | 27 | $32.15 | -1.56% | -0.56% | $11 427 909 285 |  |
|
| 10 |  STETH |
Lido stETH predictions | 95.2% | 1 | $2 941.39 | -0.40% | -3.32% | $10 258 752 564 |  |
|
| 11 |  DOGE |
Dogecoin predictions | 88.8% | 14 | $0.059515 | -1.94% | -2.79% | $7 895 849 620 |  |
|
| 12 |  DOT |
Polkadot predictions | 68.4% | 71 | $6.19 | -1.35% | -0.33% | $6 947 808 682 |  |
|
| 13 |  DAI |
Dai predictions | 93.6% | 1 | $0.999786 | 0.03% | 0.03% | $6 830 875 509 |  |
|
| 14 |  MATIC |
Polygon predictions | 70.8% | 64 | $0.767118 | -0.22% | 4.02% | $6 700 252 529 |  |
|
| 15 |  WTRX |
Wrapped TRON predictions | 92.4% | 5 | $0.060883 | 0.66% | 2.30% | $6 190 317 836 |  |
