Conservative BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K
The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement. Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.” In a tweet on Sunday, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics
While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time. Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.
Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.” “In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.
The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.
“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.
The accompanying chart captures when BTC’s price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.
$50,000 first hurdle for bulls
Bitcoin’s supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event. With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, so far, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.
The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.
Thereafter, however, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.
Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions
| # | Crypto | Prediction | Accuracy | CVIX | Price | 24h | 7d | Market Cap | 7d price change | |
| 1 |  BTC |
Bitcoin predictions | 74.4% | 54 | $68 221.63 | 1.27% | 2.38% | $1 346 132 518 889 |  |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  ETH |
Ethereum predictions | 76.8% | 47 | $3 277.70 | 0.62% | -6.01% | $394 072 124 681 |  |
|
| 3 |  USDT |
Tether predictions | 95.6% | 1 | $1.000294 | 0.04% | -0.03% | $114 362 869 613 |  |
|
| 4 |  SOL |
Solana predictions | 64.4% | 70 | $186.46 | 3.76% | 10.05% | $86 651 629 563 |  |
|
| 5 |  BNB |
Binance Coin predictions | 77.6% | 42 | $588.60 | 1.71% | -0.56% | $85 893 706 101 |  |
|
| 6 |  USDC |
USD Coin predictions | 90.8% | 1 | $1.000218 | 0.01% | 0.02% | $34 165 068 764 |  |
|
| 7 |  XRP |
XRP predictions | 62.4% | 86 | $0.601322 | 0.08% | 1.60% | $33 650 519 304 |  |
|
| 8 |  DOGE |
Dogecoin predictions | 72% | 55 | $0.135778 | 4.40% | 6.72% | $19 726 589 838 |  |
|
| 9 |  TON |
Toncoin predictions | 83.6% | 31 | $6.74 | -0.27% | -8.09% | $16 954 582 289 |  |
|
| 10 |  ADA |
Cardano predictions | 72.4% | 49 | $0.417851 | 0.74% | -4.48% | $15 002 527 040 |  |
|
| 11 |  TRX |
TRON predictions | 86.4% | 18 | $0.137290 | 0.44% | 2.02% | $11 952 578 512 |  |
|
| 12 |  AVAX |
Avalanche predictions | 77.6% | 38 | $28.70 | 1.64% | 1.95% | $11 330 467 420 |  |
|
| 13 |  STETH |
Lido stETH predictions | 93.2% | 1 | $2 941.39 | -0.40% | -3.32% | $10 258 752 564 |  |
|
| 14 |  SHIB |
SHIBA INU predictions | 84.4% | 30 | $0.000017 | 2.35% | -3.05% | $10 173 129 198 |  |
|
| 15 |  WTRX |
Wrapped TRON predictions | 90.8% | 1 | $0.116354 | -0.46% | 0.23% | $10 171 995 609 |  |
