Conservative BTC supply shock metric now says Bitcoin should cost at least $55K
The supply shock valuation model delivers an extra reason to be long-term bullish on upward price movement. Bitcoin (BTC) should cost at least $55,000 per coin according to one metric measuring its so-called “supply shock.” In a tweet on Sunday, analyst Willy Woo highlighted what he added is a “conservative” price estimate for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin price plays catch-up with metrics
While Bitcoin has still not established $50,000 as firm support, on-chain metrics have been much more firmly bullish for some time. Now, the so-called “supply shock valuation model” has joined them, giving a conservative price estimate of $55,000.
Supply shock is simply the unavailable BTC supply divided by the available BTC supply. This goes deeper than at first glance, as Woo uses it to effectively “wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before the bids and offers are even placed.” “In this view of demand and supply, an investor who has no intention to sell is on the demand side while an investor who is willing to sell is on the supply side,” he explained in a blog post last month.
The valuation model additionally uses an algorithm to compare similar supply and demand situations to now, thus producing a fair price estimate.
“It’s conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible,” Woo acknowledged in the tweet, referring to the ratio of coins in cold storage compared to on exchanges being at record levels.
The accompanying chart captures when BTC’s price moved with and without any shifts in investor intent.
$50,000 first hurdle for bulls
Bitcoin’s supply shock is an oft-used phrase in the current market thanks to 2021 being the year after a block subsidy halving event. With miners now unlocking just 6.25 BTC per block, so far, Bitcoin has behaved broadly similarly to previous post-halving years — 2013 and 2017.
The conservative $55,000 minimum target nonetheless remains above another set of monthly close minimums from analyst PlanB, who guesses that September will have a minimum monthly close of $43,000.
Thereafter, however, upside resumes in earnest, with Bitcoin closing out 2021 on at least $135,000. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $50,200, having stayed in a tight range throughout the weekend.
Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions
| # | Crypto | Prediction | Accuracy | CVIX | Price | 24h | 7d | Market Cap | 7d price change | |
| 1 |  BTC |
Bitcoin predictions | 60% | 84 | $22 734.84 | -4.21% | -0.77% | $438 267 091 241 |  |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  ETH |
Ethereum predictions | 61.2% | 84 | $1 551.77 | -5.32% | -4.66% | $189 896 701 242 |  |
|
| 3 |  USDT |
Tether predictions | 92% | 1 | $1.000115 | -0.01% | 0% | $67 783 850 064 |  |
|
| 4 |  BNB |
Binance Coin predictions | 67.2% | 66 | $304.94 | -4.03% | -0.33% | $48 150 478 523 |  |
|
| 5 |  USDC |
USD Coin predictions | 94.4% | 1 | $1.000034 | 0% | -0.02% | $42 771 015 068 |  |
|
| 6 |  XRP |
XRP predictions | 65.6% | 68 | $0.394979 | -4.53% | -7.82% | $20 066 373 720 |  |
|
| 7 |  BUSD |
Binance USD predictions | 93.6% | 1 | $1.000427 | 0.05% | -0.04% | $15 382 568 581 |  |
|
| 8 |  ADA |
Cardano predictions | 66.4% | 76 | $0.370680 | -6.12% | -1.21% | $12 823 171 668 |  |
|
| 9 |  DOGE |
Dogecoin predictions | 68.4% | 68 | $0.087241 | -2.94% | -1.17% | $11 574 368 244 |  |
|
| 10 |  STETH |
Lido stETH predictions | 95.6% | 1 | $2 941.39 | -0.40% | -3.32% | $10 258 752 564 |  |
|
| 11 |  MATIC |
Polygon predictions | 61.2% | 77 | $1.076001 | -8.14% | 8.30% | $9 398 132 735 |  |
|
| 12 |  SOL |
Solana predictions | 59.2% | 91 | $23.57 | -9.85% | -2.79% | $8 759 130 586 |  |
|
| 13 |  DOT |
Polkadot predictions | 61.6% | 85 | $6.13 | -7.28% | -8.05% | $7 066 700 928 |  |
|
| 14 |  LTC |
Litecoin predictions | 69.6% | 63 | $89.89 | -6.90% | 0.09% | $6 487 767 280 |  |
|
| 15 |  AVAX |
Avalanche predictions | 59.6% | 81 | $20.08 | -3.59% | 13.31% | $6 320 011 339 |  |
