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Bitcoin bulls control Friday's $1.7B monthly options expiry


30 Jul 2021   #Bitcoin

Bitcoin's surge above $40,000 boosted the bulls' advantage in this month's $1.7 billion options expiry. On Friday, July 30, a total of 42,850 Bitcoin (BTC) option contracts ($1.7 billion) are set to expire. This might be the first time since the May 21 weekly expiry that bulls will be able to profit from the $40,000 call (buy) options. The most recent surge in price may have been prompted by the rumor that Amazon would accept crypto payments, but after the e-commerce giant denied these rumors, BTC has held relatively steady.

According to options markets, regardless of the reason behind the recent market strength, a few incentives are in place for bulls to sustain the $40,000 level.

While the initial analysis favors the neutral-to-bullish call options by 21% according to the call-to-put ratio, a decent number of those bets were placed at $45,000 and higher strikes. These options are almost worthless with less than 14 hours until maturity.

Bulls are in complete control

Bears were overconfident for the monthly expiry and 87% of the neutral-to-bearish put options have been placed at $39,000 or lower. If bears are to suppress the price below this level on July 30, a total of $105 million put options will be available.

Meanwhile, the neutral-to-bullish call options below $39,000 amount to $320 million. The net result is a $215 million advantage favoring the neutral-to-bullish call options.

Sustaining the price above $40,000 on July 30 would increase the bulls' lead by $140 million. This difference seems enough to justify a price push above that level, at least until 8:00 am UTC when Deribit expiry takes place.

July future contracts also exert some influence

Bitcoin futures expiries occur simultaneously, but unlike options, longs and shorts are evenly matched at all times. An aggregate of $650 million in BTC futures is set to expire this Friday, but this will largely depend on the CME's $455 million because traders might close their position before the expiry, which happens on Friday at 3:00 pm UTC. At the moment, the options market data largely favors bulls, at least for the short-term.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap Volume 24h
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 78.8% 36 $42 692.93 -2.10% -1.96% $803 819 282 603 $30 748 553 485
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 73.2% 51 $2 955.85 -4.21% -2.12% $347 903 077 176 $19 101 897 139
3 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 63.2% 75 $2.16 -4.60% 4.25% $69 295 841 075 $3 084 135 333
4 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 92.8% 1 $1.000474 -0.01% 0.05% $68 575 451 500 $70 240 814 218
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 65.2% 65 $337.66 -3.90% -7.26% $56 773 744 460 $1 538 043 078
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 72.8% 49 $0.924905 -2.55% 0.68% $43 209 372 694 $2 970 626 231
7 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 67.6% 66 $138.70 0.05% 0.31% $41 252 366 694 $2 837 656 739
8 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 95.2% 1 $1.000334 0.01% -0.01% $31 130 094 542 $3 148 284 594
9 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 68.8% 69 $27.73 -5.72% -2.87% $27 388 621 521 $1 694 336 627
10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 66.8% 70 $0.200964 -3.44% -4.38% $26 418 834 354 $858 880 050
11 Terra (LUNA) LUNA Terra predictions 68% 60 $37.85 6.16% 36.72% $15 139 928 160 $1 669 613 943
12 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 60.4% 84 $67.15 -0.78% 13.01% $14 791 554 871 $1 240 824 478
13 UniSwap (UNI) UNI UniSwap predictions 67.6% 70 $22.37 -7.77% 5.86% $13 679 594 706 $1 145 133 068
14 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 94.8% 1 $1.000184 0% 0.01% $13 517 674 906 $5 035 296 123
15 Chainlink (LINK) LINK Chainlink predictions 64.8% 70 $23.21 -6.39% -2.06% $10 559 720 262 $1 106 271 150

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