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Bitcoin bulls control Friday's $1.7B monthly options expiry


30 Jul 2021

#Bitcoin

Bitcoin's surge above $40,000 boosted the bulls' advantage in this month's $1.7 billion options expiry. On Friday, July 30, a total of 42,850 Bitcoin (BTC) option contracts ($1.7 billion) are set to expire. This might be the first time since the May 21 weekly expiry that bulls will be able to profit from the $40,000 call (buy) options. The most recent surge in price may have been prompted by the rumor that Amazon would accept crypto payments, but after the e-commerce giant denied these rumors, BTC has held relatively steady.

According to options markets, regardless of the reason behind the recent market strength, a few incentives are in place for bulls to sustain the $40,000 level.

While the initial analysis favors the neutral-to-bullish call options by 21% according to the call-to-put ratio, a decent number of those bets were placed at $45,000 and higher strikes. These options are almost worthless with less than 14 hours until maturity.

Bulls are in complete control

Bears were overconfident for the monthly expiry and 87% of the neutral-to-bearish put options have been placed at $39,000 or lower. If bears are to suppress the price below this level on July 30, a total of $105 million put options will be available.

Meanwhile, the neutral-to-bullish call options below $39,000 amount to $320 million. The net result is a $215 million advantage favoring the neutral-to-bullish call options.

Sustaining the price above $40,000 on July 30 would increase the bulls' lead by $140 million. This difference seems enough to justify a price push above that level, at least until 8:00 am UTC when Deribit expiry takes place.

July future contracts also exert some influence

Bitcoin futures expiries occur simultaneously, but unlike options, longs and shorts are evenly matched at all times. An aggregate of $650 million in BTC futures is set to expire this Friday, but this will largely depend on the CME's $455 million because traders might close their position before the expiry, which happens on Friday at 3:00 pm UTC. At the moment, the options market data largely favors bulls, at least for the short-term.


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