The year 2020 had cryptocurrency traders’ mood swinging from excitement in January, when the market had engaged in a bull rally, to total frustration during the flash crash in March in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, and then to exuberance in the middle of the fall when Bitcoin, and the rest of the cryptocurrency market, has exploded to the upside after PayPal and a host of institutional investors from the United States (MicroStrategy, Grayscale) began buying huge volumes of BTC. Over the past several weeks, the newsreel has been filled with stories of this or that coin breaking its respective all-time high, showcasing massive gains, and going on a price-discovery trip that brought about even more gains.
Unfortunately for those who hold Bitcoin Cash (BCH) in their portfolios, the altcoin that represents the fork of Bitcoin, has been nowhere near its forefather in terms of making sprints to the upside. A glance at the BTC/BCH comparison chart below is enough to understand the performance gap between the two cryptocurrencies that share the same code.
1-year BTC/BCH comparison chart. Source: CoinCodex
It’s clear that even though the price of Bitcoin Cash has been constantly on the rise ever since it took a huge dip in March, it hasn’t made any groundbreaking moves, and showcased very moderate gains, especially compared to its parent cryptocurrency and the coins from the DeFi cohort.
Understandably, the altcoin’s performance over the past twelve months has been quite underwhelming as the price of BCH in USD has risen only by a mere 36.7% as of the time of writing, while it has been completely crushed in the Bitcoin (-64.2%) and the Ethereum (-83.3%) markets during the said period of time. This begs the question, is Bitcoin Cash a good investment?
To answer that rather tough question, we have employed our unique price prediction model that utilizes the readings of Crypto Volatility Index (CVIX), the indicator of our own design that gauges the market sentiment similar to the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the analysis of the past Bitcoin Cash price history, and the coin’s past and projected market capitalization to deliver the most comprehensible Bitcoin Cash price prediction for 2025 and 2030.
Even though the introductory passage has some negative connotation to it, we are far from claiming that Bitcoin Cash is a lost cause. The price of BCH didn’t follow the rest of the market in its bullish frenzy, but it had its fair share of upside action that made it the center of attention in a couple of instances.
The first one occurred at the very dawn of 2021 when the price had had a 200% rally in a span of 56 days that brought it to the $500 level only to collapse to $130 in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. The second Bitcoin Cash’s big bull rally occurred near the year’s close, when the BCH price had successfully held onto the support at $240 and then exploded to $630 in a little over 50 days, a move that brought about a 180% gain.
Right now, the price of Bitcoin Cash in USD stands at $430 as the market has gone into a correction phase after the last bullish rally, having dropped by 35% in the past two weeks. And while this might seem like a nice performance that begs for continuation, the analysis of the Bitcoin Cash historical chart tells us that the bears are still keeping a lid on this market.
BCH historical chart. Source: Coinmarketcap
It’s obvious that the $500 level had proven to be impassable for BCH until lately, though the recent break above $600 might still prove to be the fake-out. Bitcoin Cash’s highest price still stands at $4,358, which is 90% away from its current standing, basically, making its growth prospects unchanged since early 2019.
Add to that the fact that the altcoins related to the decentralized finance (DeFi) movement, namely Chainlink (LINK) and Polkadot (DOT), have been making tremendous strides that led to Bitcoin Cash being pushed down in the global ranks from the 5th position all the way to the 9th place, despite the fact that its market capitalization has been moving in sync with the price action and has actually risen to $10,8 billion at the peak of the recent bull rally.
1-year BCH market capitalization chart. Source: Coinmarketcap
Given that DeFi is likely to receive an additional boost after the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade get fully implemented, which will greatly increase the capabilities of the Ethereum blockchain that serves as the foundation for most DeFi projects, we might see Bitcoin Cash falling further in the ranks, presumably somewhere to the bottom of top 20.
1-year BCH market capitalization prediction
Our algorithm predicts that the market capitalization of Bitcoin Cash will have a slight drop in the next month to $9,8 billion only to spike to $16,3 billion by the end of the year. But given that the market capitalization of DOT, which sits in the 4th place, is already $16 billion, the chances of Bitcoin Cash getting back to the top of the rankings in five or ten years are quite slim, unless the developer team comes up with a groundbreaking solution that could provide the incentive for BCH to regain its status. However, that is also unlikely, because the team still has a long way to go to complete the original roadmap.
1-year price prediction chart
Having taken all these aspects into consideration, we came up with the following near-term Bitcoin Cash price prediction:
This brings us to the conclusion that Bitcoin Cash possesses a relatively weak upside potential, especially compared to the closest competitors, which ultimately makes it a mediocre investment vehicle, meaning that you won’t reap much fruit from holding BCH in your portfolio for more than a couple of months (the price action history shows that Bitcoin Cash’s bull rallies rarely last longer than 60 days), though the BCH market will most certainly present plenty of options for a profitable swing trading.
Before proceeding with forecasting what Bitcoin Cash will be worth in 5 years, we would like to devote a paragraph to the technical analysis on the weekly chart in order to understand whether BCH has the foundation for future growth.
1-week BCH/USDT chart (OKEx). Source: Tradingview
Here we see how significant is the area between the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels for this particular market as the price had always been severely rejected there, but this time around, the buyers managed to break it to the upside and even briefly scratch the 78.6% retracement level before being pressurized back below 61.8%. Now, it is of immense importance for BCH to make the support out of the 50% Fibo level in order to maintain the bullish momentum and finally confirm the intention to make a downtrend reversal.
MACD remains in the bullish control zone, with the momentum staying on the side of the buyers, which is confirmed by the presence of a tall bullish histogram and the position of indicator’s moving averages. However, we do see that the indicator is high in the overbought zone, which could result in a deeper correction to $350 before the price of Bitcoin Cash finally starts to recover.
We see that the trading volume from the past six weeks is sufficiently high, which is a positive sign of active market participation, though we could see it decreasing slightly in the next few weeks as the BCH price will consolidate before continuing with the bull rally along with the rest of the market. But we shouldn’t disregard the possibility of the price of Bitcoin Cash falling to $300 (38.2% on Fibonacci) as part of the lingering correction, which would still make the higher low and allow the buyers to maintain the uptrend architecture.
All in all, everything points toward Bitcoin Cash starting a major uptrend of its own over the course of 2021 that is likely to last throughout the following five years.
With the blockchain technology getting actively adopted through central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), while the institutional investors can’t seem to satisfy their appetite for Bitcoin, there is hardly any doubt that we are now at the brink of the bull market that might potentially last for the next three to five years, as opposed to the bubble of 2017/2018. It means that there is a high possibility of the price of Bitcoin Cash finally reaching and surpassing the seemingly distant highest historical price. And like with most other cryptocurrencies, the long-term performance of BCH will depend largely on the viability of its fundamentals and the rate of adoption of this peer-to-peer payment system.
5-year price prediction chart
Our proprietary algorithm predicts that the year 2022 will see BCH having its price appreciated by 218% and finally rising above the $1000 mark and finding a foothold near $1400, as the cryptocurrency market continues to mature.
In 2023, Bitcoin Cash will stay on its course to the upside, but that year will see a more confident bullish action that will push BCH to $2500 at the peak of that year’s cycle and marking a 485.3% gain from altcoin’s current position.
The year 2024 will be the hallmark one for Bitcoin Cash because that will be the time when the coin will finally reach and surpass the all-time high, consequently opening a new page in the BCH price history and embarking on the price discovery trip of its own. Our algorithm predicts that by the close of 2024, the price of Bitcoin Cash in USD will rise by 940% and get entrenched near the $4700 level.
Finally, 2025 will see Bitcoin Cash finally shining as its price will have a massive 1000+% increase (2027% from today’s standings) and soar up to $9200, while other cryptocurrencies might already enter the period of stagnation that usually occurs after the long-lasting growth. Obviously, that is the period when Bitcoin Cash can be considered a good investment, but before that, you might want to consider other options.
Bitcoin Cash’s biggest advantage is, obviously, the recent inclusion in the list of five cryptocurrencies that was made available to PayPal users. The entrance of the global payment agent to the cryptocurrency market had an enormously positive effect on the entire industry and served as one of the main catalysts for the ongoing bull market. And that inclusion might well be the reason why BCH will stay afloat in the next five years and avoid being placed in the same line with once-promising but ultimately failing altcoins like NEM (XEM) and ZCash (ZEC). Just check out this Bitcoin Cash transaction chart below, which shows a huge spike in daily transactions that began right around the time when PayPal stepped into the crypto waters.
1-year BCH transaction chart. Source: BitInfoCharts
At the same time, the average transaction fees are gradually declining, as shown on the chart below, which showcases the main advantage that BCH has over its parent coin, which is the cheapness (and speed) of transactions even at times of increased network usage.
1-year BCH transaction fee chart. Source: BitInfoCharts
Most of you probably know how problematic it becomes to send/receive funds in Bitcoin when its network gets congested. Half an hour waiting time and a $50 fee for a single transaction - something that we have seen many times when the Bitcoin network gets clogged - isn’t something that an average PayPal user would go for when buying some miscellaneous goods with cryptocurrencies. At the same time, transactions in BCH have proven to be significantly faster and, most importantly, way cheaper than those made in BTC.
Therefore, once PayPal users - especially online merchants and their customers - become more educated about the pros and cons of each available cryptocurrency, they will recognize the advantages of Bitcoin Cash that push the demand for this altcoin higher. Certainly, BCH isn’t the only fast and affordable payment solution out there, especially when it has Litecoin (LTC) by its side, but the technology has already proven its viability, so Bitcoin Cash is guaranteed to earn its fair share of the market.
Besides, the developer team has a lot more to offer since it has barely made it half-way through the roadmap. In the next five years, they should incorporate the solution that allows for the expedited block propagation; introduce the pre-consensus feature that would ensure the state-of-the-art security for online merchants, along with a new and more compact transaction format; the Merklix-metadata tree for scalable block processing; the adaptation of block size to 1TB due to the greatly increased demand; the incorporation of the “Best Money” solution that will see the reduction of transaction time to 3 seconds, and the emergence of a new token economy that will feature different types of digital assets being tradeable on a single blockchain.
As you can see, these are solid, but not groundbreaking, improvements in fundamentals that will allow Bitcoin Cash to remain relevant in the coming five years and serve as the foundation for the predicted appreciation of the BCH price.
It seems that Bitcoin Cash will always remain in the shadow of its forefather Bitcoin, but even so, the altcoin won’t fall into oblivion even in 10 years’ time, when there would be dozens of similar, and probably even more efficient, P2P payment solutions.
Therefore, we reckon that the price growth will peak in 2025 or 2026, upon which the price of Bitcoin Cash will stabilize at the level close to $12,000, which occasional spikes to $14,000 or even $15,000. However, we reckon that the fair price of BCH should be below $10,000, given its solid but, nevertheless, mediocre fundamentals and the presence of equally good or even better solutions on the market.
Besides, Bitcoin Cash needs to stay relatively cheap in order to be attractive for retail investors and remain the convenient payment vehicle it is now. That is why we believe that after years of continuous growth, BCH will eventually descend below the $10,000 mark and find the equilibrium in 2030 near $6,000 - $7,000 level that could be the starting point for the next bull market.
You can invest in BCH now because the price of the coin is predicted to increase, but if you want larger profits, better opt for other altcoins.
Larger block size, faster and cheaper transactions, compared to those made in BTC.
In 2021, Bitcoin Cash will start making serious efforts to establish a secondary uptrend, and reach the price of $880.
By 2025, Bitcoin Cash will see the climax of its biggest bull rally in years, and will ultimately reach the $9,200 mark.
By the end of 2030, Bitcoin Cash will roll back to $7,000.
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