Portfolios Reviews & Comments - April 2024

Altcoins are showing less impressive positive dynamics, however, the entire market as a whole is in the green zone, in sharp contrast to what happened last March, when the markets were selling out in panic due to fears around a new virus. It is this missed moment that investors are most sorry for right now, as March 2020 was the last moment to buy Bitcoin and other coins at incredibly low prices compared to current levels. The DeFi token Uniswap (UNI) also demonstrates a strong positive momentum, reflecting the overall success of decentralized financial applications. At the moment, the coin entered the TOP-10 cryptocurrencies, ranking 8th with a capitalization of $ 17 billion. The total amount of blocked funds in the DeFi sector is $ 39 billion. In the long term, this market shows constant growth. In just one year, the DeFi market has grown by over 4,000%. It is likely that such decentralized financial applications, in the face of constant tightening of control in the traditional market, will become another important part of the cryptocurrency foundation.

A Glassnode study found that only 4 million BTC are in free float on the market. The third halving in the Bitcoin network, which happened in May 2020, halved the miners' reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. This further exacerbates the shortage of coins in the market, while businesses have begun to actively invest in Bitcoin, and the largest payment applications, including PayPal and Square, have added the ability for their users to buy and sell digital assets. Market participants continue to monitor Bitcoin addresses that have been idle for a long time. Analysts concluded that every time the old coins move, it coincides with a market correction. Now 1,000 BTC have been moved, which have been motionless since 2010. Thus, in combination with what is happening in the traditional market, we may well see a new immersion in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market as a whole.

Bitcoin is ineffective for transactions due to its highly speculative nature and the large amounts of energy used by its network, said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. People need to be aware of the extreme volatility of Bitcoin. I am really worried about potential losses for investors. I'm afraid it is used in illegal financial flows, ”she said. Yellen mentioned the need to consider launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to analyst Sven Henrich, Yellen has actually declared war on bitcoin. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Freed said last week that the crypto futures market is currently overheated. If this level of activity in the market continues, then days with liquidation of positions worth several billion dollars will become the norm for the cryptocurrency space, said Paolo Ardoino, CTO of the Bitfiex crypto exchange.

Overall, the supply / demand ratio remains in favor of bitcoin: 150,000 BTC coins were mined and almost 360,000 were bought back over the last five months of 2020, and investors hope that this balance will continue in the future.
At the same time, buyers look at the head of Tesla Elon Musk, whose tweets alone push the quotes sharply upward. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now interested in his "creativity" on Twitter, considering that the billionaire's calls to buy digital assets fall under the law on the offer and advertising of securities and can be regarded as unregistered brokerage activities and attempts to manipulate the market. If proven, Elon Musk could face huge fines. In the meantime, the entrepreneur said that he was taking a break and would no longer post tweets, at least in the near future.

The decline in bitcoin occurs simultaneously with the strengthening of the dollar index (DXY). It climbed to a three-week high of around 90.70. As a result, the two largest currencies - digital and traditional - once again showed an inverse correlation. The correction we are seeing was expected as the sharp rise in BTC from $ 20,000 to $ 40,000 over the past four weeks has increased market pressure and triggered selling.

Less than a month has passed since the confident breakthrough of $ 20K, and since then we have seen that the institutions continued to increase their purchases. Retail investors do take profits, especially those who have been anticipating this moment for the last 3 years, but large investors have come to see new all-time highs. The Bitcoin dominance index at the time of reaching a historical maximum was about 73%, but after it began to decline along with the price, as well as against the background of an increase in demand for altcoins. The Greed and Fear Index has been in the “extreme greed” mode for the last month, but now technical indicators have a significantly less impact on the crypto market, being in the shadow of demand from big capital and retail FOMO.

The monthly relative strength index is poised to close above 80. “When this happens, the bullish trend continues and the average return is 1010.87%. Each new cycle is shorter. The $ 27,000-27500 area should play an important support role, from which bitcoin can go to $ 30,000 and above. While many expect the Bitcoin rally to continue in the second half of 2021, JPMorgan analysts point to BTC overbought and predict a correction.

After Bitcoin's rise to $ 24,000, analysts set the following targets in the center of the $ 30,000-40,000 range. Managing Director of the eToro US platform, Guy Hirsch, said that the activity of participants in the options market suggests the possibility of Bitcoin's rise to $ 36,000. Robert Kiyosaki predicted BTC to rise to $ 50,000 amid the influx of money from institutional investors. Scott Minerd, the investment director of Guggenheim Partners, predicted the rate of the first cryptocurrency in the region of $ 400,000. Insider's co-founder, businessman Henry Blodget, did not rule out the growth of bitcoin to $ 1 million.

Almost the entire market is growing now, but the most noticeable growth is within the TOP-10. For example, Ethereum (ETH) adds 11% and is trading around $ 650. It is very likely that this is far from the limit of growth, even within the current bullish wave. That is, we see only the beginning of the spread of the rally across the sector. So what are the main differences from 2017, and why hasn't the current growth momentum reached its full potential? The 2017 rally was driven by the retail FOMO. In 2020, retail investors have tried to stay aloof. As the rally brought Bitcoin close to $ 20K, retail investors started buying altcoins as they were not yet close to their all-time highs. However, the demand for liquid instruments from the institutional side concentrated the rally around several instruments. Smart money is very beneficial to create a feeling of euphoria in the market, but so far most are cautious about what is happening. However, there will be no trace of common sense if BTC continues to grow at this rate, for example, over the next week. This will be the most dangerous moment of the current rally, as the overbought technical indicators will at some point be stronger than the FOMO.

The magic of the number 20 obviously provoked a stir in the market, since together with the price one can see an increase in trading volumes several times over $ 50 billion, which additionally cements the growth of the asset price. In addition, we have again received strong evidence of Bitcoin's ability to overcome the pressure of technical indicators. The greed and fear index for Bitcoin and the largest cryptocurrencies remained unchanged during the day at 92, which corresponds to the “extreme greed” mode. The irony is that the index is almost at its highs, which should indicate a correction, but we see exactly the opposite result - the market FOMO is so strong at the moment. It is quite remarkable that exactly 3 years ago, on December 17, 2017, Bitcoin set its past all-time high. What the new maximum will be will depend on the actions of institutional investors. Now retail investors are reaching out to the market, but it will be quite dangerous to open positions within the framework of a short-term strategy at such high levels.

Most of the participants in a survey conducted by cloud mining service Genesis Mining doubt Bitcoin's growth to $ 50,000 by 2030. Most of those surveyed believe that bitcoin will perform better than gold, real estate or the stock market in the next 5-10 years. 65% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will continue to grow. However, when asked what the BTC rate will be by 2030, only 49.9% of respondents answered that it will be above $ 20,000.

The Greed and Fear Index for Bitcoin and the largest cryptocurrencies is again in the “extreme greed” area at 95. The traditional market is, in fact, also overheated, but in the current environment this is still not enough to trigger a full-scale correction. In addition, Bitcoin could be supported by news from MicroStrategy, which managed to raise $ 650 million instead of $ 400 million to buy another batch of bitcoins. American insurance company MassMutual, with a $ 235 billion investment fund, has invested about $ 100 million in Bitcoin.

Since 2018, the asset manager of the bankrupt exchange, Nobuaki Kobayashi, has repeatedly asked the Tokyo court to extend the deadline for filing a civil rehabilitation plan approximately every six months and received permission to do so. It is highly likely that it will be the same this time, but risks still remain. Bitcoin could fall to $ 16,000, and then to $ 14,000, warned Michael van de Poppe, analyst at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. He explained that the cryptocurrency has not been able to overcome the resistance level of $ 20 thousand for several weeks. This makes a strong decline in BTC quotes likely. At the end of November, Brian Kelly, CEO of the BKCM fund, warned about the risk of an imminent decline in BTC. He is confident that the coin rate may fall to $ 12 thousand. This is supported by a sudden rise in the price of altcoins, a significant number of open long positions and a significant influx of new users into the market.

Bitcoin emerges victorious in the fight for money space amid the coronavirus pandemic. BTC's resilience against the backdrop of global events has forced institutional investors and critics to reconsider their attitude towards it. Meanwhile, bitcoin has not yet been able to overcome the $ 20,000 level, and large investors continue to transfer their BTC reserves to exchanges. These and other factors speak in favor of reducing the value of the coin. A large-scale correction can create momentum for continued gains by connecting buyers in a downturn. By the end of 2021, we can see growth with potential up to $ 36,000 - $ 40,000.

In 2017, big business has yet to see the huge potential of Bitcoin, watching the global retail FOMO pushing Bitcoin's value to all-time highs without any major investment infrastructure. Now everything has changed places: the rally was created by institutions, and retail investors were just reaching for Bitcoin. The big difference is that large investors were able to crash the market in 2017, while retail investors are unlikely to be able to do so now, taking profits. And will they want to, against the backdrop of inspiration from growth? The current bullish pattern will be to make the majority of market participants believe that Bitcoin is imminent. It will not be difficult to do this, given the challenges facing the global economy and how quickly entire industries that enjoyed growth yesterday can depreciate.

Bitcoin has almost reached its all-time high, so retail investors may be paying particular attention to alternative cryptocurrencies that are historically far from their highs. Although the most famous and largest altcoin in terms of capitalization, Ethereum (ETH) rose 28% over the week, approaching $ 600, the coin is still very far from its $ 1,400 ceiling in mid-January 2018. For the most part, these are the levels that retail investors will be targeting.

Of course, the main character of all recent news is Bitcoin. Society loves success stories. The main question that now torments investors of all levels: is it too late to invest in a reference cryptocurrency? Bitcoin can indeed continue to rise and surpass $ 20K. However, you need to be prepared for a correction before resuming growth. Thus, given the fact that the ideal moment to invest in March 2020 has been missed, investing can be recommended with a few caveats. A few caveats for investing in Bitcoin at current levels. This is not the last money, you are ready to lose it. You will be calm about the correction immediately after the probable purchase of BTC. You are ready to take small profits given the high growth rates of late. You are ready to see continued growth for some time after you take profit.

The market capitalization of bitcoin on Tuesday reached a new all-time high, surpassing the records of 2017, writes ttrcoin. Analyst firm Coin Metrics notes that bitcoin capitalization has exceeded $ 328.89 billion - the previous peak recorded on December 16, 2017. Investors usually pay attention to the price of a cryptocurrency, but capitalization is also an extremely important characteristic, since it reflects the total cost of the system. In addition, with its help, Bitcoin can be compared with other financial assets or companies.

Biden's victory, in theory, should support the crypto market in general and Bitcoin in particular, as the Democrats are more inclined to stimulate the economy, which should increase inflation. Nevertheless, now Bitcoin depends on a large number of internal and external factors, so it is impossible to unambiguously link the victory of the Democrats and the growth of Bitcoin. The fact that Biden did not personally speak out negatively about Bitcoin does not mean that the key economic positions will not be taken by opponents of the cryptocurrency.

Biden wins the election, while Bitcoin has managed to hold above $ 15K. This is the main news of the past week and weekend. The bears tried to initiate a correction in Bitcoin on Saturday, however, the correction to $ 14,500 attracted buyers. However, if you look at the Greed and Fear Index for Bitcoin and the largest cryptocurrencies, the picture is quite alarming. The indicator jumped 8 points over the course of a day to the value “90”, which corresponds to the “extreme greed” mode. The indicator indicates that the asset is extremely overbought, hinting at an approaching correction. The index reached its current values ​​at the end of June 2019, when the value of BTC approached $ 14K and began to fall since then. Extreme overbought for the crypto market does not mean an immediate reversal to decline. On the contrary, the FOMO-rally may even intensify in the near future, causing an avalanche-like closing of short positions. But a halt in growth could reverse the entire market very quickly, as investors rush to lock in on the recent rally.

Pay attention to the change in the tactics of the "whales", which began to withdraw bitcoins to crypto-exchanges, which is an alarming signal. You need to closely monitor the market situation in order to respond in time and sell BTC at a comfortable price. Meanwhile, more and more "sleeping" bitcoins, that is, mined in the early years of the existence of the cryptocurrency and have not moved since then, are starting to wake up. On Saturday, November 7, 1,050 bitcoins were set in motion, lying motionless on their addresses since 2010. This is not the first such movement of "old" bitcoins this year. In March, shortly before the market crash on Black Thursday, 1,000 BTC started moving, which had also been motionless since 2010.

Bitcoin jumped 8.7% ($ 1200) on Thursday to $ 15,200, the highest gain since late July. At such levels, the first cryptocurrency was traded in early January 2018. The rise in bitcoin took place against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the dollar, caused by expectations of Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election. Against this backdrop, gold and stock indices have shown significant growth. It was critically important for Bitcoin to overcome the resistance area near $ 12,000. He succeeded, after which he had no significant obstacles to at least repeat the rally towards $ 20,000. All obstacles were crushed, and now any news background is perceived as positive for bitcoin.

Bitcoin rallied in October despite a series of negative news, including a lawsuit filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against BitMEX and an ongoing freeze on withdrawals on OKEx. The sentiment of crypto market participants in recent months has been supported by announcements of public companies to buy BTC as a reserve asset.

The decline in exchange-traded deposits, despite the risk aversion in the stock markets, is a bullish signal. Bitcoin will continue to show strength over the coming weeks. Blockchain-level metrics and observing community sentiment on social media are now more cause for concern and may indicate an overheated market. The risks for Bitcoin still exist. The main one is the potential deleveraging in the financial markets. If the slide in stock indices turns into a crash, Bitcoin could repeat its fall in March, when its price more than doubled. If this extremely unfavorable scenario can be avoided (with the help of a government aid package or Fed support measures), the BTC rate may not meet significant resistance up to highs above $ 20,000 and reach them in the coming months.

Most investors expect Bitcoin to continue to rise within a month. At the end of November, the increase in the value of the cryptocurrency will be 5%, according to a survey by the Real Vision website. Another survey found that 80% of Real Vision users currently believe in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Recently, Abra CEO Bill Bargidt said he has increased his Bitcoin portfolio as he sees the asset's investment appeal continuing to grow. Bitcoin's more robust growth is being constrained by the lack of cryptocurrency regulation in the US, said Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global. But the demand for alternative instruments will continue to grow in the near future. This trend is the result of fears associated with the coming weakening of the dollar. According to the expert, those who buy BTC now should immediately tune in to long-term storage of cryptocurrency.

Since the end of last week, the first cryptocurrency has received positive impulses due to the news about investments in Bitcoin from the institutional side. First it was MicroStrategy with the purchase of bitcoins for $ 425 million, then Square with an investment of $ 50 million, yesterday it became known that a large asset management company Stone Ridge is investing $ 115 million in Bitcoin. We cannot say that these investments are of such a volume , which can change the course of events on the crypto market, but the very fact of interest from such companies significantly increases the credibility of Bitcoin as a means of portfolio diversification.

Given Trump's declining chances of winning due to illness, the likelihood of a significant increase in turbulence in the run-up to and after elections in the country is growing. A Democrat's victory may lead to increased tax pressure on business and softer social policies in the context of an epidemic. Business, stock indices and Bitcoin are now an important chain in the formation of the price trend of the first cryptocurrency. Acting as a direction to diversify a portion of the investor portfolio, Bitcoin may face a sell-off as risk positions are reduced.

To help blocking coins in applications, halving can serve, which, in fact, performs approximately the same function by reducing the reward for miners. At the same time, the link between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies should not be overlooked. The latter often act as another way to diversify the portfolio, therefore, they are vulnerable to major sell-offs along with other risky assets. Which turns out to be stronger: institutional investors or a decrease in turnover due to blocking coins in applications, will show the very near future.