Bitcoin
BTC$70 449.01

-0.61%

Ethereum
ETH$3 550.02

-1.02%

Tether
USDT$1.000260

0.05%

Binance Coin
BNB$617.39

5.34%

Solana
SOL$186.62

0.58%

XRP
XRP$0.628783

1.29%

Why Bitcoin's next breakout may not be an altcoin season signal


07 Jun 2021

#Bitcoin

Many investors rely on bullish breakouts from Bitcoin as a sign of the next altcoin season but data suggests this strategy is flawed. On April 14, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a $64,900 all-time high after accumulating 124.5% gains in 2021. However, a 27.5% correction followed over the next eleven days, marking a $47,000 local bottom.

The popular Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached its lowest level in 12 months on April 25, signaling that investors were closer to "extreme fear," which was a complete reversal from the "extreme greed" level seen during the Bitcoin rally above $60,000.

This downward move from April 14 to 25 wiped out $200 billion from the altcoin market capitalization. Still, the recovery that followed could serve as a guide on what to expect when Bitcoin finally manages to exit the sub-$40,000 level. Altcoins posted a similar trend, bottoming at $850 billion on April 22 but fully recovering to a record $1.34 trillion high on May 10. There is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat, but there is no better source of information than the recent market itself.

Cheaper is not always better

Many investors believe that altcoins consistently outperform when Bitcoin price takes off, but is that an absolute truth? Although that has been the case in 2021, Bitcoin was the clear winner in the last quarter of 2020 as it surpassed the broader market by 110%. However, analyzing the winners from the late-April bull run could provide interesting insights on what to expect for the next rally.

Among the top-100 tokens, Ether Classic (ETC), Polygon (MATIC), Waves, and Fantom (FTM) were the clear winners. The winners were either scaling solutions or smart contract platforms, and the sector leader Ether (ETH) also outperformed the market.

80% of the worst performers were sub-$1 coins which is precisely the opposite of investors' usual expectations. There's a persistent myth that cheap, nominally-priced altcoins will excel during altcoin rallies, but that clearly was not the case.

Timing the market is impossible

Unfortunately, there is no way to predict when the current correction will be over, and altcoins historically do not usually excel during bear trends. This means calling 'alt season' at the first sign of Bitcoin's price recovery is an inaccurate strategy that can lead to financial ruin.

A general rule of thumb for an 'alt season' kick-off is two or three consecutive days of 30% or higher accumulated gains on cryptocurrencies with little-to-no development, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), and Ether Classic (ETC).


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 75.6% 42 $70 449.01 -0.61% 11.75% $1 385 553 227 337 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 71.2% 50 $3 550.02 -1.02% 6.17% $426 253 072 703 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 92.4% 1 $1.000260 0.05% 0.05% $104 531 443 248 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 59.6% 80 $617.39 5.34% 11.04% $92 321 546 061 BNB 7 days price change
5 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 58.4% 88 $186.62 0.58% 9.70% $82 936 975 312 SOL 7 days price change
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 81.2% 28 $0.628783 1.29% 3.65% $34 510 279 075 XRP 7 days price change
7 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 90.4% 2 $1.000067 -0.02% 0.01% $32 524 331 222 USDC 7 days price change
8 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 66.4% 66 $0.215672 -0.54% 45.00% $30 984 665 921 DOGE 7 days price change
9 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 65.2% 66 $0.659879 1.59% 8.33% $23 481 442 590 ADA 7 days price change
10 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 61.2% 87 $53.77 -0.89% -2.19% $20 293 559 632 AVAX 7 days price change
11 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 57.6% 94 $0.000031 -3.74% 17.27% $18 155 779 036 SHIB 7 days price change
12 Toncoin (TON) TON Toncoin predictions 56.8% 86 $5.07 0.91% 18.93% $17 608 340 137 TON 7 days price change
13 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 74.4% 49 $9.67 1.52% 9.62% $13 797 724 802 DOT 7 days price change
14 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) BCH Bitcoin Cash predictions 72% 57 $621.45 9.32% 55.65% $12 231 843 665 BCH 7 days price change
15 Chainlink (LINK) LINK Chainlink predictions 78.8% 42 $19.11 -0.91% 8.11% $11 217 275 057 LINK 7 days price change

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