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Who Is in Charge in the BTC/USD Pair? Answer: US Federal Reserve


07 Feb 2022

#Bitcoin

Whatever crypto enthusiasts say, bitcoin has long ceased to be an independent asset. And  the decisive factor in the BTC/USD pair is the dollar. And the strength or weakness of the US currency depends, in turn, on the policy of the US Federal Reserve (and partly on the actions of other Central banks).

The same crypto enthusiasts crave an inflow of funds from institutional investors like manna from heaven. And the latter are waiting for the regulators to establish clear rules governing the work with digital assets. Therefore, the movement of quotes of leading cryptocurrencies will depend (and already depends) not on the mood of millions of small players, but on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. Just look at the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. This link is becoming more and more rigid and is determined by the risk sentiment of large investors.

Of course, short-term fluctuations in BTC/USD can be affected by events such as bad weather that has suspended miners in Texas. But the main trends are set not by them, but by the actions of regulators.

Bitcoin is now perceived as a "money commodity". Analysts of Fidelity Digital Assets came to this conclusion, calling the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money. And what kind of government will allow the flow of "perfect" money to pass it by? And there may be two solutions: either to ban them completely, as in China, or to take them under strict control.

The Central Bank of Russia wanted to follow the Chinese version. But Russia's President Vladimir Putin supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance not to ban, but to regulate the cryptocurrency market, including their circulation and mining. This is a very serious decision, because, according to Bloomberg, residents of Russia possess a huge number of digital assets worth about $214 billion. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor also believes that the current problems in the cryptocurrency market are caused, first of all, by the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. According to Saylor, many institutional investors are now tracking bitcoin, however, they are in no hurry to invest in it.

According to JPMorgan analysts, the persistence of high volatility, which limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions, is also an obstacle.

Interestingly, analysts at another major investment bank, Goldman Sachs, agree that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to escape the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, they believe that the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may not improve, but, on the contrary, worsen the chances for its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will further increase their correlation with the traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies and reduce both their speculative attractiveness and their advantages as a diversifying asset in investor portfolios.

As for the current situation, despite a solid bounce off its 90-day low of $32,950, the main cryptocurrency has been unable to overcome the strong resistance in the $38,000-39,000 zone for a long time. However, the BTC/USD pair went on a breakthrough and reached $40,880 at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, February 04. The total market capitalization for the week has grown slightly: $1.85 trillion compared to $1.70 trillion seven days ago, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has deepened even more into the zone of Extreme Fear, falling from 24 to 20 points.

The latest JPMorgan report notes that “open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicate less panic or liquidation of positions than in last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors”. At the same time, the bank’s specialists do not exclude a further decrease in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of capitulation of buyers. They seriously lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000.

According to Business Insider, JPMorgan's model assumed that bitcoin's volatility would converge with gold's volatility and equalize their shares in investment portfolios. Now, the bank’s analysts have acknowledged that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 proved to be unrealistic, leading to the downgrade.

Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls turn bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks.

Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob.

However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, Peter Brand's current remark about "laser eyes" in bears clearly deserves attention.

It is also worth paying close attention to the results of the round table organized by the Finder analytical website. The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. The average forecast given by the participants of the table says that bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025.

Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating.

Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts BTC growth as well. According to his forecast, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents.

Finally, the most cosmic forecast was given by Circle CEO Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. In his opinion, the worldwide adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of this coin to $1 million. The businessman admitted that he is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, he prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 80.8% 26 $18 917.31 -1.02% -4.11% $362 463 667 283 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 72.8% 54 $1 298.77 -3.27% -6.06% $159 129 662 025 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 95.6% 1 $1.000070 0% 0% $67 959 486 248 USDT 7 days price change
4 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 91.6% 1 $1.000058 0.01% 0% $49 596 112 733 USDC 7 days price change
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 90.8% 15 $274.90 -1.14% 0.65% $44 352 122 648 BNB 7 days price change
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 61.6% 74 $0.501984 0.54% 26.46% $25 023 258 974 XRP 7 days price change
7 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 96% 1 $1.000777 0.03% 0.03% $20 533 202 140 BUSD 7 days price change
8 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 83.2% 32 $0.449897 -2.32% -3.88% $15 400 494 496 ADA 7 days price change
9 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 84.8% 28 $32.71 -3.79% 0.84% $11 601 976 269 SOL 7 days price change
10 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 95.6% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
11 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 85.6% 14 $0.061846 -3.69% 3.13% $8 205 146 170 DOGE 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 78.8% 41 $6.23 -3.04% -8.15% $6 984 955 644 DOT 7 days price change
13 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 90.8% 1 $0.999539 -0.04% -0.04% $6 927 324 765 DAI 7 days price change
14 Polygon (MATIC) MATIC Polygon predictions 73.6% 55 $0.749357 -2.69% -5.72% $6 545 118 739 MATIC 7 days price change
15 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 79.2% 42 $0.000011 -3.43% -2.78% $6 126 642 475 SHIB 7 days price change

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