Bitcoin
BTC$17 036.85

0.07%

Ethereum
ETH$1 263.24

-0.10%

Tether
USDT$1.000067

0%

Binance Coin
BNB$288.85

-0.25%

USD Coin
USDC$0.999980

0.01%

Binance USD
BUSD$0.999875

-0.03%

Traders expect Ethereum price to drop further ahead of Friday’s $550M options expiry


23 Nov 2021

#Ethereum

$550 million in ETH options expire on Nov. 19 and derivatives data suggest bears will apply more downward pressure to Ethereum price. Ether's (ETH) 330% year-to-date gain has been largely fueled by the growth of decentralized finance and the explosion of non-fungible tokens. Proof of this comes from OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace, surpassing the impressive mark of $10 billion in accumulated trading volume.

However, traders worry that the 15% correction that followed the $4,870 all-time high on Nov. 10 could indicate that a larger bearish movement is in place. The rupture of the 55-day ascending channel reinforces this thesis and Nov. 19's $550 million Ether options expiry will likely favor bears.

Ethereum's $86 billion total value locked in smart contract contracts, represents 70% of the market and this metric has increased by 25% over the last two months, signaling that the industry leader was not affected by the network's $50 average gas fees. Regulatory uncertainties, especially in the United States, have been eclipsing the cryptocurrency markets' bull-run. For example, on Oct. 18, the New York Attorney General's office gave a "cease and desist" order to two crypto lending platforms operating in the state.

On Nov. 1, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) released a report focused on stablecoins' risks to users and financial stability. The report urged Congress to issue a federal prudential framework, invoking the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC. More recently, on Nov. 16, U.S. lawmakers started to fight back against changes to tax reporting rules for cryptocurrency transactions above $10,000 in the newly passed infrastructure bill. A group of congresspeople called for revisions to exclude miners, validators and wallet developers for tax purposes under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF).

Whatever the reason behind the recent Ether price weakness, bulls' excessive optimism on Friday's ETH $550 million options expiry will likely give bears further ammo to pressure down the market.

At first sight, the $275 million worth of call (buy) options virtually match the $280 million value in ETH put (sell) instruments. Still, the 0.98 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because some of those prices now seem far-fetched. For example, if Ether's price remains below $4,400 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 19, only 7% out of the call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. So, there is no value in the right to buy Ether at $4,400 if it's trading below that price.

Bears completely dominate Friday's expiry

Below are the four most likely scenarios for the Nov. 19 expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

This crude estimate considers call (buy) options used in bullish strategies and put (sell) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Ether above a specific price. Unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears have a clear shot at securing a $140 million profit

Currently, Ether price trades near $4,150, and there are incentives in place for bears to push ETH below $4,100 ahead of Friday's expiry. In that case, their estimated profits reach $140 million. On the other hand, considering Ether's 12% correction over the past three days, bulls would be more than pleased to take a $60 million loss if the ETH expiry price happens above $4,200.

Avoiding a $140 million loss is the bulls' best-case scenario right now, considering the bearish scenario caused by regulatory uncertainties.


Related

Thanks to Ethereum,
Thanks to Ethereum, "altcoin" is no longer a slur
NFT rides shotgun as Red Bull Racing closes out F1 season
NFT rides shotgun as Red Bull Racing closes out F1 season
Ether staking withdrawal schedule removal faces harsh criticism
Ether staking withdrawal schedule removal faces harsh criticism
NFTs are the key to turning passive fandom into an active community
NFTs are the key to turning passive fandom into an active community
Bored Apes founders propose new model for NFT creator royalties
Bored Apes founders propose new model for NFT creator royalties
Bitcoin and Ethereum: The Price of Bitcoin Struggles
Bitcoin and Ethereum: The Price of Bitcoin Struggles
Ethereum is trading near $1300
Ethereum is trading near $1300
Cryptocurrencies need a driver
Cryptocurrencies need a driver
Ethereum is gaining 3.5% overnight to $1330
Ethereum is gaining 3.5% overnight to $1330

Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 87.6% 17 $17 036.85 0.07% 0.92% $327 556 756 832 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 85.6% 28 $1 263.24 -0.10% -0.28% $154 587 986 288 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 90.8% 1 $1.000067 0% 0.03% $65 689 611 763 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 76.8% 44 $288.85 -0.25% -2.64% $46 207 469 148 BNB 7 days price change
5 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 90.8% 1 $0.999980 0.01% 0% $43 034 408 184 USDC 7 days price change
6 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 91.6% 1 $0.999875 -0.03% 0.01% $22 097 327 307 BUSD 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 84.8% 29 $0.385676 0.09% -4.09% $19 384 234 023 XRP 7 days price change
8 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 64% 73 $0.099825 -2.40% -6.11% $13 243 856 158 DOGE 7 days price change
9 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 82.4% 30 $0.317492 -0.81% 1.31% $10 940 552 708 ADA 7 days price change
10 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 94% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
11 Polygon (MATIC) MATIC Polygon predictions 75.2% 52 $0.910821 -0.40% 5.98% $7 955 397 260 MATIC 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 77.2% 37 $5.47 -0.50% 1.57% $6 265 062 095 DOT 7 days price change
13 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 95.6% 1 $0.999729 0.04% 0% $5 876 957 032 DAI 7 days price change
14 Litecoin (LTC) LTC Litecoin predictions 59.2% 85 $79.31 -2.60% 1.08% $5 692 408 178 LTC 7 days price change
15 Wrapped TRON (WTRX) WTRX Wrapped TRON predictions 82.8% 30 $0.053505 0.53% -0.76% $5 440 190 613 WTRX 7 days price change

Be the first to receive Cryptocurrency Price Predictions and Forecasts daily

Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.

© 2015-2022 Crypto-Rating.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.