15 Sep 2020 #Bitcoin
The original stock-to-flow model is calling time on Bitcoin’s phase at around $10,000, and it’s not been wrong so far. It’s high time for Bitcoin (BTC) to begin its next significant price rise, the creator of one of the best-known BTC price models says.
In a tweet on Sep. 14, quant analyst PlanB highlighted increasing signs that BTC/USD is due to repeat historical gains.
Referring to the original incarnation of his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, PlanB said that the time was right to begin an order of magnitude step up.
“This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used),” he wrote alongside a new chart. “You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up.”
The original S2F chart differs from the more recent stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which incorporates macro factors and introduces “phases” in Bitcoin’s metamorphosis as an asset. It calls for an average BTC price of $288,000 before 2024.
Since the May halving, Bitcoin has put in “red dots” on the model, which have run to expectations, if not in a similar fashion to what happened after the 2016 halving.
Interestingly, Cointelegraph market analyst Michael Van de Poppe is also seeing the same pattern emerge from a technical analysis perspective.
“If you'd like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted on Sep. 14. “Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it's likely we'll see that too.”
When asked where the source of funds will come from in order to propel BTC/USD towards $100,000, PlanB highlighted a blog post about S2F and confirmed that his hypothesis remained valid.
It would be “silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates [..], countries with predatory governments [..], billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”
Optimism on safe havens continues this week beyond Bitcoin. As Cointelegraph reported, hopes are high that gold will react positively to Wednesday’s policy update from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Continuing, Mike McGlone, chief strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted strength in gold.
“Rising gold prices, despite declining managed-money net-longs hedge funds and an advancing dollar, are a sign of the strengthening foundation under the metal,” he summarized on Monday. “Less speculation vs. more organic demand forces are at play for the store of value, which indicates a healthy bull market.”
XAU/USD currently lingers at just under $1,950, having hit all-time highs of $2,075 in August.
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