Bitcoin
BTC$17 101.84

1.27%

Ethereum
ETH$1 282.48

1.20%

Tether
USDT$0.999994

0.01%

Binance Coin
BNB$300.71

0.02%

USD Coin
USDC$1.000052

0%

Binance USD
BUSD$0.999988

0.02%

The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin


07 Dec 2021

#Bitcoin

On Monday, along with rising risk appetite in global markets, buying interest in cryptocurrencies returned. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 9 points to 25 overnight. This is still an area of extreme fear, but recent dynamics of the largest coins indicate that this is now the moment for investors with increased risk appetite to enter. BTCUSD has added 4.9% in the last 24 hours, trading just above the $51K level.

The RSI on the daily candlestick charts has retreated from below 30 (oversold area). The price has found support from buyers at the important 200-day moving average. This is a strong signal for many participants that the whole market stays in a long-term bullish phase.

But so far, we see very cautious buying, which is creating doubts. A better signal would be a sharp move up, crossing this line, as in July and October this year and before that in April 2020. This is quite an optimistic scenario for bitcoin, where it gets sustained bullish support, preventing it from descending into an uncontrollable fall.

The pessimistic scenario for bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency market, assume a bullish/bearish sentiment tied to 4-year halving cycles. The previous two bear markets came in 2014 and 2018, giving speculators a good shake out of that train and leaving only the most resilient crypto enthusiasts. A sharp reversal to the downside after a dizzying rise came in late 2013 and 2017 and lasted about a year. This suggests a high risk of reversal at the end of 2021. From peak to bottom in 2013-2014, BTC lost more than 70%, and in 2017-2018 – 85%.

A repetition of these scales sets BTCUSD up for a pullback in the 10-20k range. In our view, even a decline to 20k - the highs of the previous cycle - looks like a very pessimistic scenario for now. But it may well materialise under a negative set of circumstances, though it is bound to attract the interest of long-term buyers. Bitcoin needs to pass several checkpoints before we seriously consider such a scenario. The first one is the 200-day moving average (currently at 48k). Confirmation we will get on the decline under $40K, the level of previous local lows.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 66.4% 75 $17 101.84 1.27% 3.22% $328 724 568 377 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 64.4% 73 $1 282.48 1.20% 7.27% $156 941 554 038 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 95.2% 1 $0.999994 0.01% 0.06% $65 362 262 254 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 67.6% 64 $300.71 0.02% 1.05% $48 104 579 847 BNB 7 days price change
5 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 91.2% 1 $1.000052 0% -0.02% $43 253 658 738 USDC 7 days price change
6 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 90.8% 1 $0.999988 0.02% -0.05% $22 215 099 814 BUSD 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 71.2% 57 $0.400600 -0.02% 5.84% $20 146 176 780 XRP 7 days price change
8 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 57.6% 87 $0.103941 -1.14% 28.28% $13 789 995 776 DOGE 7 days price change
9 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 64.8% 74 $0.317564 0.81% 1.23% $10 939 028 805 ADA 7 days price change
10 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 90.8% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
11 Polygon (MATIC) MATIC Polygon predictions 68.4% 71 $0.922059 5.79% 8.50% $8 053 552 200 MATIC 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 67.2% 66 $5.39 -0.32% -0.04% $6 174 239 885 DOT 7 days price change
13 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 93.6% 1 $0.999969 -0.03% -0.02% $5 653 257 262 DAI 7 days price change
14 Wrapped TRON (WTRX) WTRX Wrapped TRON predictions 66.4% 63 $0.054684 1.55% 5.62% $5 560 018 768 WTRX 7 days price change
15 Litecoin (LTC) LTC Litecoin predictions 64.4% 78 $77.31 -1.46% -0.52% $5 545 390 448 LTC 7 days price change

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