Bitcoin
BTC$19 108.68

-0.12%

Ethereum
ETH$1 051.12

-1.09%

Tether
USDT$0.999042

0%

USD Coin
USDC$1.000039

-0.01%

Binance Coin
BNB$216.74

-0.87%

Binance USD
BUSD$1.001586

0.07%

The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin


07 Dec 2021

#Bitcoin

On Monday, along with rising risk appetite in global markets, buying interest in cryptocurrencies returned. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 9 points to 25 overnight. This is still an area of extreme fear, but recent dynamics of the largest coins indicate that this is now the moment for investors with increased risk appetite to enter. BTCUSD has added 4.9% in the last 24 hours, trading just above the $51K level.

The RSI on the daily candlestick charts has retreated from below 30 (oversold area). The price has found support from buyers at the important 200-day moving average. This is a strong signal for many participants that the whole market stays in a long-term bullish phase.

But so far, we see very cautious buying, which is creating doubts. A better signal would be a sharp move up, crossing this line, as in July and October this year and before that in April 2020. This is quite an optimistic scenario for bitcoin, where it gets sustained bullish support, preventing it from descending into an uncontrollable fall.

The pessimistic scenario for bitcoin, and the entire cryptocurrency market, assume a bullish/bearish sentiment tied to 4-year halving cycles. The previous two bear markets came in 2014 and 2018, giving speculators a good shake out of that train and leaving only the most resilient crypto enthusiasts. A sharp reversal to the downside after a dizzying rise came in late 2013 and 2017 and lasted about a year. This suggests a high risk of reversal at the end of 2021. From peak to bottom in 2013-2014, BTC lost more than 70%, and in 2017-2018 – 85%.

A repetition of these scales sets BTCUSD up for a pullback in the 10-20k range. In our view, even a decline to 20k - the highs of the previous cycle - looks like a very pessimistic scenario for now. But it may well materialise under a negative set of circumstances, though it is bound to attract the interest of long-term buyers. Bitcoin needs to pass several checkpoints before we seriously consider such a scenario. The first one is the 200-day moving average (currently at 48k). Confirmation we will get on the decline under $40K, the level of previous local lows.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 59.2% 88 $19 108.68 -0.12% -10.44% $364 683 630 223 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 54% 93 $1 051.12 -1.09% -14.27% $127 610 536 230 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 91.6% 1 $0.999042 0% -0.04% $66 018 262 534 USDT 7 days price change
4 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 95.6% 1 $1.000039 -0.01% 0% $55 804 793 378 USDC 7 days price change
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 65.2% 75 $216.74 -0.87% -9.37% $35 388 059 426 BNB 7 days price change
6 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 92.4% 1 $1.001586 0.07% 0.28% $17 575 061 690 BUSD 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 68% 69 $0.317499 1.53% -12.57% $15 348 864 758 XRP 7 days price change
8 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 66.8% 72 $0.448366 -0.36% -10.65% $15 214 866 694 ADA 7 days price change
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10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 66.8% 62 $0.066138 0.06% -13.89% $8 774 635 420 DOGE 7 days price change
11 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 94.8% 1 $1.000043 -0.04% 0% $6 895 987 122 DAI 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 68% 67 $6.72 -0.01% -16.62% $6 636 204 716 DOT 7 days price change
13 TRON (TRX) TRX TRON predictions 66% 74 $0.065733 3.58% -3.47% $6 079 571 196 TRX 7 days price change
14 UNUS SED LEO (LEO) LEO UNUS SED LEO predictions 73.6% 54 $5.87 2.64% -0.14% $5 604 429 157 LEO 7 days price change
15 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 71.2% 63 $0.000010 0.62% -13.36% $5 523 555 766 SHIB 7 days price change

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