12 Oct 2020 #Bitcoin
New data shows Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price action is showing higher levels of HODLing activity than previous bull cycles. According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, an indicator called “reflexivity” has been increasing in recent months. Woo explained that the indicator measures Bitcoin investors’ tendency to hold onto their BTC as its price rises. It’s essentially an alternative way to gauge the HODLing activity of retail investors.
There are several reasons why retail investors might be holding onto their BTC even more so than in previous bull cycles. If Bitcoin rallies in 2021, most investors would see it as a post-halving bull rally. Historically, BTC has rallied 12 to 15 months after each halving, recording a new all-time high each time. Based on the tendency of BTC to rally after a halving, retail investors might be holding as a strategy to avoid being priced out if a strong sustained rally begins.
Bitcoin has also shown a surprising level of resilience throughout multiple potential black swan events. After its initial recovery from the pandemic-induced crash in March, it has stayed above $10,000 despite numerous negative events. Most recently, the price of Bitcoin slumped after the U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged BitMEX with violating the Bank Secrecy Act. After the CFTC announcement BTC price fell below $10,500 but it quickly recovered to the $10,700 support level.
The U.S. presidential election and Q4 may push BTC price higher. Industry executives and prominent investors in the cryptocurrency industry foresee the upcoming presidential election in November benefiting Bitcoin. Su Zhu, the CEO of Three Arrows Capital, said a Democratic sweep would catalyze Bitcoin due to various macro factors. He also suggested that a second term for Trump could also benefit Bitcoin. He wrote: “Biden is extremely bullish for BTC because democrat blue wave could usher in unprecedented installation of MMT agenda w/ corresponding dollar weakness and deficits. With that said Trump is also bullish.”
As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, traders including Peter Brandt believe higher time frame charts point to a strong uptrend for Bitcoin. The combination of favorable technicals, strengthening fundamentals, and rising HODLing activity could buoy a BTC bull run in 2021.
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