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Price predictions

Kraken exec: 5 reasons why Bitcoin is at the beginning of a bull run


25 Aug 2020   #Bitcoin

A combination of frightening macro phenomena and Bitcoin strength spells bullish for Kraken’s Dan Held. Bitcoin is “at the beginning” of an extended bull run, and there are increasingly clear reasons to accept it.

That is the opinion of Dan Held, head of growth at United States cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, who listed the latest evidence for bullish Bitcoin (BTC) on Aug. 24.

Many commentators have argued that Bitcoin is just getting started when it comes to price rises. For Held, the contributing factors are both Bitcoin-specific and macro-related.

In-profit UTXOs near 98% 


Over 97% of Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) — or parts of a transaction that involve coins returned to the initiator — are in profit. As Cointelegraph reported, this means that less than 3% of transactions occurred at a higher price than the recent high of $12,400. Typically, this occurs at the start of bullish periods.

Put another way, almost 98% of all BTC is now worth more than when someone received it, meaning that long-term investors are better off than almost any time in the history of Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin has now stayed above $10,000 for the second-longest period in its lifespan, tied with July 2019.

Supply dormancy spells HODL


Meanwhile, as noted by CasaHODL co-founder Jameson Lopp, one-year active supply has reached its lowest since the early days in 2011. “Folks don't want to part with their bitcoin,” he summarized.

Held referred to 61% of the total BTC supply remaining stationary for over a year, something that Cointelegraph previously identified as a bullish signal — investors are choosing to hold and not to trade or sell. 

Exchange balances likewise hitting lows contributes to the theory.

A timely halving


The above factors occurring in the months after Bitcoin’s third block subsidy halving bolster the bullish argument. Miners have recovered from the loss of revenue, while demand has remained conspicuous, especially from corporate and institutional buyers.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s inflation rate has dipped as a result of the halving, making repeated large-scale buy-ins an increasingly expensive business.

The inflation continues


When MicroStrategy made Bitcoin its new treasury reserve currency, its CEO, Michael Saylor, highlighted monetary policy as a major concern that pushed him away from fiat currency.

Held agreed, frequently pointing out the erratic money printing by central banks as a key argument in favor of Bitcoin adoption. This policy, he said, is now in “overdrive,” in the week that the Federal Reserve is tipped to reveal a plan to boost inflation.

World debt snowballs


Lastly, global debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is now higher than at any point outside of wartime.  This almost unbridled debt mountain — in excess of $255 trillion, even before coronavirus — shows no signs of slowing. 

The practice speaks to the classic Keynesian mantra regarding debt and its consequences for those who create it: “In the long run, we are all dead.”

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