Is Axie Infinity overheating? AXS price hits record high following 100% QTD rally

The gaming token, which reached $150 in the early UTC hours of Monday, risks correcting below $90 as a key technical indicator identifies its overbought conditions. AXS, the native token of Axie Infinity, a play-to-earn nonfungible token (NFT) game built atop the Ethereum blockchain, rallied more than 100% on a quarter-to-date (QTD) timeframe to refresh a new record high above $155. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency now risks paring a portion of its recent gains as a key technical indicator, dubbed the relative strength index (RSI), flashes its overbought conditions. In doing so, it might correct below $90 — almost a 40% drop.

The bearish outlook surfaces after studying the relationship between AXS’s price and its RSI readings. In detail, when the RSI rallies above 70, it mostly prompts AXS to either consolidate sideways or lower later.

But in either case, the token ends up testing its 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave in the chart below) as an interim support level. For instance, RSI has closed above 70 three times since July 1, 2021, and each time prompted the price to hit its 20-day EMA within seven to 30 days. That made buying AXS against an overbought RSI reading a risky preposition for traders, increasing their probability of facing short-term losses.

As a result, the Axie Infinity token could go through a similar bearish trajectory in the days/weeks ahead, with its next downside target sitting around $87. Nonetheless, if the price rallies further ahead, as happened after July’s overbought signal, AXS’s bearish target could move to or above $90.

Is hodling a better strategy?

The 20-day EMA served as a buy indicator for traders following the RSI-led corrections. In detail, traders decided to buy the dip in anticipation that AXS’s price would retest and close above its previous high levels. Therefore, it is visible that traders who did not sell their AXS holdings during the price corrections toward the 20-day EMA managed to earn decent paper profits — the Axie Infinity token has climbed more than 2,500% since July 1.

AXS’s growing utility inside the Axie Infinity virtual world, called Lunacia, has emerged as one of the primary catalysts behind its demand among gamers and traders. In detail, players maneuver colorful creatures called Axies to earn two kinds of tokens.

The first, known as Small Love Potions (SLP), is awarded for successful battles; it can be cashed out or be reused to breed new Axies. Meanwhile, the second token, AXS, can be earned by winning seasonal tournaments or selling Axies in Axie Infinity’s dedicated in-house marketplace. As of Monday, Axie Infinity’s active user count tallied to 1.85 million, up over 4,500% since April, with its total cumulative revenue climbing to $815 million in the same period, as per Token Terminal. That made Sky Marvis, the firm behind Axie Infinity, the fifth-most valuable video game company globally by market capitalization. The strong fundamentals have intensified traders’ confidence in AXS, which explains its ability to bounce back every time after undergoing a sharp correction toward its 20-day EMA.

AXS staking service, DEX launch

The latest bout of buying in the Axie Infinity markets also surfaced due to a new feature that allows AXS holders to stake their tokens to earn yields. Since its launch on Thursday, the staking feature has attracted more than 12.44 million AXS tokens (~$1.88 billion at current rates).

Staking effectively takes active token supply out of circulation, which, against a rising demand for the asset, tends to push its prices higher. 

Meanwhile, Sky Mavis announced that it would launch a decentralized exchange on Ethereum-linked sidechain Ronin. In doing so, the company aims to ensure faster AXS and SLP liquidity to players during gameplay without needing to rely on cross-chain bridges to purchase or swap tokens.