The crypto market was relatively quiet until Thursday October 13. The BTC/USD pair, despite the downward pressure, looked quite stable, holding positions around $19,000. However, it flew down after the values of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) became known, following the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. However, it never reached the June 19 low of $17,940, and having found a local bottom at $18,155, it then went up sharply, following the stock indices. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 14, the pair is trading in the $19.375 zone.
According to Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe, bitcoin price volatility will increase in the second half of October. The US inflation data, along with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market. The next important point will be early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. Based on this, JP Morgan strategists predict a new collapse of the S&P500 index, by about another 20%. Thus, the unrealized loss of those who invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies at the beginning of 2022 could exceed 44%. However, many crypto investors hope that, as in the case of the recent crisis in the UK, bitcoin will play the role of digital gold this time and will not collapse after other assets. It will become clear in the foreseeable future whether these hopes will come true.
If we look at the latest analysts' forecasts by color, the palette is as follows: short-term forecasts are dark black, medium-term forecasts are gray, and long-term forecasts are sky blue. Among the dark blacks, this time, let's highlight the scenario of Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins. He has recently shared a model that reflects BTC's price performance in previous bearish cycles. Zach Voell studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.
The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower. He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.
Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability in the past months. (Apart from BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3).
Now let's talk about what may happen in the last, Q4 2022. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks “a strong tailwind.” He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.
Such levels for ethereum and bitcoin will certainly not impress investors. Therefore, this forecast of the Bloomberg Intelligence strategist can be classified as neutral gray. Then move on to sky blue scenarios. Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. According to the influencer, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable “at some point” because of too much money.
That moment, according to Raoul Pal, could come when the Fed retreats from its plans to fight inflation by tightening monetary policy. This Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs chief executive said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins. According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.
“There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,” said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. “This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,” says the financier. “You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.”
A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades. The rainbow price chart of the Blockchain Center looks no less optimistic. (It differs somewhat from our forecast). It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset. In the long term, the graph indicates that bitcoin could reach a six-figure value of $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the “maximum bubble territory” then, marked in dark red.
Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price is estimated to be in the “Main Sale” zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin’s “HODL” status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151. The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, the total crypto market capitalization is $0.927 trillion ($0.946 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed 1 point in seven days from 23 to 24 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.
|#||Crypto||Prediction||Accuracy||CVIX||Price||24h||7d||Market Cap||7d price change|
|1||BTC||Bitcoin predictions||84.4%||17||$17 058.33||0.06%||0.44%||$327 969 673 009|
|2||ETH||Ethereum predictions||80.4%||28||$1 266.25||0.01%||-0.56%||$154 956 271 042|
|3||USDT||Tether predictions||93.6%||1||$1.000063||0%||0.04%||$65 689 347 584|
|4||BNB||Binance Coin predictions||78.4%||44||$289.87||0.04%||-4.43%||$46 370 691 955|
|5||USDC||USD Coin predictions||94%||1||$0.999979||0%||-0.02%||$43 034 372 975|
|6||BUSD||Binance USD predictions||96%||1||$1.000081||-0.05%||-0.07%||$22 101 869 687|
|7||XRP||XRP predictions||85.2%||29||$0.386677||-0.35%||-4.46%||$19 434 565 003|
|8||DOGE||Dogecoin predictions||66%||73||$0.100260||-1.98%||-7.15%||$13 301 634 924|
|9||ADA||Cardano predictions||83.2%||30||$0.318080||-0.75%||0.25%||$10 960 804 759|
|10||STETH||Lido stETH predictions||91.6%||1||$2 941.39||-0.40%||-3.32%||$10 258 752 564|
|11||MATIC||Polygon predictions||71.6%||52||$0.913880||-0.11%||4.95%||$7 982 115 948|
|12||DOT||Polkadot predictions||78%||37||$5.48||-0.37%||0.45%||$6 269 169 724|
|13||DAI||Dai predictions||95.2%||1||$0.999497||-0.03%||-0.06%||$5 875 589 658|
|14||LTC||Litecoin predictions||61.6%||85||$79.71||-1.79%||0.97%||$5 720 814 160|
|15||WTRX||Wrapped TRON predictions||84.4%||30||$0.053431||0.36%||-1.20%||$5 432 662 792|
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