Bitcoin
BTC$66 123.34

0.99%

Ethereum
ETH$3 555.02

4.45%

Tether
USDT$0.999468

0%

Binance Coin
BNB$606.32

1.74%

Solana
SOL$144.58

2.21%

USD Coin
USDC$1.000022

0%

Derivatives data favors Ethereum bulls even with this week's crash below $3K


24 Sep 2021

#Ethereum

Losing the $3,000 mark just days before Friday's $1.55 billion ETH options expiry nearly doomed Ether longs, but derivatives data shows bulls are still in favor. Ether (ETH) has been in a bearish trend since early September, and this week's Evergrande-led market crash drove the price below $2,700 on Sept.20, its lowest level in 47 days. Curiously, just three weeks ago, Ether was testing the $4,000 psychological barrier, but this changed after mounting crypto regulatory concerns and the fear of China's debt markets triggering a global sell-off intensified.

This week U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke to the Washington Post about renewed plans to regulate the crypto sector and the growing stablecoin market.

Ether's negative price trend reversed on Sept. 22 after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the continuation of the central bank's monthly bond purchasing program. Powell also made clear that no interest rate hike should be expected in 2021. Even though the current $3,000 level represents a 25% retraction from the recent $4,000 peak, Ether price still reflects a 215% gain in 2021 and the network's adjusted total value locked (TVL) jumped from $13 billion in 2020 to $60 billion, signaling strong adoption despite surging gas fees.

As shown above, bulls got caught by surprise because 72% of call (buy) instruments were placed at $3,200 or higher. Consequently, if Ether remains below that price on Friday, only $260 million worth of neutral-to-bullish call options will be activated on the expiry.

A call option is a right to sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price on the set expiry date. Thus, a $3,200 cut option becomes worthless if Ether remains below that price at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 24.

Bulls still have an advantage in Friday's $1.55 billion expiry

The 1.48 call-to-put ratio represents the difference between the $920 million worth of call (buy) options versus the $620 million put (sell) options. This bird's eye view begs a more detailed analysis because some bets are far-fetched considering the current $3,000 level. Below are the four most likely scenarios considering the current Ether price. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit from the expiry. The data below shows how many contracts will be activated on Friday, depending on the ETH price:

This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish strategies and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors typically use more complex strategies that involve different expiry dates. Moreover, there is no way to know if the arbitrage desks are fully hedged.

To win, bears need to keep Ether below $2,900

These two competing forces will show their strength, and the bears will try to minimize the damage. On the other hand, the bulls have decent control over the situation if the Ether price remains above $3,000. The most important test will be the $2,900 level because bears have significant incentives to suppress the price at this level, even if momentarily. Although there's still room for additional volatility ahead of the expiry, the bulls seem to be better positioned.


Related

Crypto may be ready for a new leg down
Crypto may be ready for a new leg down
Cryptocurrencies wait for a signal
Cryptocurrencies wait for a signal
What are dynamic NFTs?: Use cases and examples
What are dynamic NFTs?: Use cases and examples
Shanghai Upgrade Fires Up ETH and Altcoins
Shanghai Upgrade Fires Up ETH and Altcoins
Challenges of data accessibility in the NFT market
Challenges of data accessibility in the NFT market
Is the A.I. revolution about to pump Nvidia stocks?
Is the A.I. revolution about to pump Nvidia stocks?
Five tips for investing during a global recession
Five tips for investing during a global recession
What is NFT ticketing and how does it work?
What is NFT ticketing and how does it work?
The crypto market is cheaper than a trillion again
The crypto market is cheaper than a trillion again

Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 87.2% 16 $66 123.34 0.99% -4.79% $1 303 451 857 959 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 78.8% 41 $3 555.02 4.45% -3.46% $427 135 531 951 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 92.4% 1 $0.999468 0% -0.04% $112 500 110 914 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 79.2% 33 $606.32 1.74% -11.61% $89 483 264 510 BNB 7 days price change
5 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 82.8% 28 $144.58 2.21% -9.57% $66 753 466 287 SOL 7 days price change
6 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 94.8% 3 $1.000022 0% 0% $32 442 766 908 USDC 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 80.4% 27 $0.493733 5.33% 0.08% $27 436 964 277 XRP 7 days price change
8 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 73.2% 49 $0.136503 2.35% -6.62% $19 755 088 075 DOGE 7 days price change
9 Toncoin (TON) TON Toncoin predictions 74.8% 51 $7.97 0.86% 13.14% $19 398 824 296 TON 7 days price change
10 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 82% 29 $0.413290 2.36% -4.92% $14 764 940 323 ADA 7 days price change
11 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 56.4% 94 $0.000021 3.96% -11.04% $12 205 332 764 SHIB 7 days price change
12 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 75.2% 49 $30.08 2.56% -6.97% $11 831 150 649 AVAX 7 days price change
13 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 92% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
14 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) WBTC Wrapped Bitcoin predictions 91.6% 1 $66 245.61 1.22% -4.60% $10 151 195 405 WBTC 7 days price change
15 TRON (TRX) TRX TRON predictions 85.6% 19 $0.115284 -0.54% 0.49% $10 062 292 912 TRX 7 days price change

Be the first to receive Cryptocurrency Price Predictions and Forecasts daily

Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.

© 2015-2024 Crypto-Rating.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.