Bitcoin
BTC$16 850.61

2.23%

Ethereum
ETH$1 264.86

4.07%

Tether
USDT$0.999917

0.02%

Binance Coin
BNB$299.27

-1.26%

USD Coin
USDC$0.999988

-0.01%

Binance USD
BUSD$1.000272

0.01%

BTC Forecast from the President of El Salvador


27 Jun 2022

#Bitcoin

We called the last review "Bloodbath or $20,000 Battle". As for the past week, there was not much blood this time, but the battle for $20,000, as predicted, did not subside. The week's low was fixed at $17,597, the maximum at $21,667, and the BTC/USD pair met Saturday, June 25, at $21,350. At this point, the total crypto market capitalization was $0.960 trillion ($0.895 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still not going to leave the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 11 points out of 100 possible (7 points a week ago).

The general mood of the market is fully consistent with this Extreme Fear. The Internet is talking again about the death of bitcoin. According to Google Trends, the number of search queries on this topic has returned to its maximum levels, close to December 2017. Recall that at that moment, approaching the coveted $20,000, the main cryptocurrency turned around and flew down, losing more than 40% of its value in a few days. The only difference with that long-standing situation is that bitcoin was approaching the $20,000 level from below then, and it is from above now. And the market was looking for a top then, and for a bottom now. Moreover, according to a number of influencers, it is not at all necessary that the bottom is at this particular mark.

So, according to Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital President, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, “so far, there are no signs of surrender, which usually forms the bottom of the bearish market”. According to this gold supporter, the $20,000 mark will be the same “bull trap” as the $30,000 level was before. “Nothing falls in a straight line. It's actually a very ordered crash in slow motion," Schiff said. Recall that he predicted back in May that bitcoin would test $8,000. And he suggested in mid-June that the minimum could be even lower, around $5,000.

According to the president of Euro Pacific Capital, the collapse of the cryptocurrency market will be good for the economy. Kevin O'Leary, co-host of the business TV show Shark Tank, made a similar point. He believes that one should not be afraid of the bankruptcy of large companies during the crypto winter. “This is good for all other companies as they will learn from this. I think we will soon see a wave of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency market. I don't know who it will be. Later you will recognize those who have taken a high-risk position. But I assure you I have seen this before. They have been destroyed, and that's good,” said the millionaire.

The InvestAnswers crypto channel, in turn, named 3 possible catalysts for a further market collapse. The BTC price may fall even more if MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor decides to sell the bitcoins in the company's reserves. In addition, the potential collapse of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and the problems of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital may also contribute to further capitulation of BTC. According to InvestAnswers, we should not forget about the possible sale of crypto assets by Tesla. MicroStrategy reported a $1.2 billion loss last week due to the fall of bitcoin. As for the Three Arrows Capital fund, it now has about $2.4 billion left in assets out of $18 billion.

Big problems are experienced not only by investors, but also by miners. Due to the fall in the price of BTC and the increase in computational complexity, the total return from mining is now 65% lower than the average for the year. At the same time, the efficiency of the Antminer S19 ASIC from Bitmain is 80% worse than the level of November 2021, and the popular S9 model has lost profitability altogether. This situation has led to the fact that mining companies are forced to sell their BTC holdings in order to pay off loans and cover current operating costs, which puts pressure on the market. Their remaining reserves are estimated at 46,000 coins (about $920 million). In the event that these bitcoins are also thrown into sale, quotes will certainly fall further down.

An analyst aka Capo, who had correctly predicted the collapse of the cryptocurrency market this year, updated his forecast. In his opinion, BTC expects a decline to $16,200, and ETH to $750. According to Capo, investors are fooling themselves into believing that a short-term rally means bitcoin is bottoming the cycle: “Bull trap. Funds from altcoins flow into BTC, which will also be sold, but a little later. There is no bottom yet,” he said.

According to another specialist, crypto strategist Kevin Svenson, bitcoin has a chance to bottom in the $17,000-18,000 range, after which a short-term rally to above $30,000 may occur. At the same time, although Svenson expects this short-term growth, he does not see the prerequisites for launching a new bull market in the near future: “Overcoming the main downward resistance is the main obstacle and the process may last until the end of the year.” According to the strategist, after the breakthrough of the diagonal resistance, bitcoin can trade in a narrow range for several months and start a new uptrend only by 2024 year.

Despite the low current rate of bitcoin, many participants in the crypto industry believe in its future growth. For example, there is a belief that BTC could reach $100,000 by 2025. One of those who supported such optimism was an analyst called PlanB, who built his forecasts based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model worked well for three years until March 2022, after which it failed.

The Daily Gwei creator Anthony Sassano and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin have recently criticized S2F, advising PlanB to delete their account. The analyst reacted to criticism with restraint. He said that in the aftermath of the crash, many are looking for scapegoats, including leaders. PlanB then presented a graph of five different BTC price prediction models. According to the illustration, the most accurate picture is given by estimates based on the complexity and cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. The S2F model, in turn, offers an overly optimistic view.

Another expert, Benjamin Cowen, proposed his bitcoin bottoming model. He believes that the bottom can be predicted based on the correlation of inflation, the S&P 500 stock index and the BTC price. The analyst argues that the S&P 500 index does not historically sink to the very bottom until inflation peaks and reverses. Accordingly, BTC cannot reach the bottom for the same reason. “Macroeconomic indicators look incredibly bleak at the moment. If you go back to the 1970s, you'll see a very similar type of move where the S&P bottomed just as inflation hit its first peak. By this point, the S&P was down about 50%,” writes Cowen.

And to conclude the review, one more “prediction model”, which we put in our humorous crypto life hacks section. It was presented by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” he wrote. For reference, there are 2,301 BTC in El Salvador's public bitcoin fund, purchased at an average price of $43,900. Thus, at the moment, the loss on them is about 55%. But, according to the "model" of Nayiba Bukele, this "trifle" should not be paid attention to. The main thing is to get the most out of life!


Related

Bitcoin’s bottom might be below $15.5K, but data shows some traders turning bullish
Bitcoin’s bottom might be below $15.5K, but data shows some traders turning bullish
Copy Trading Strategies: How to Start Successful Copy Trading
Copy Trading Strategies: How to Start Successful Copy Trading
Institutional investors are buying through crypto winter
Institutional investors are buying through crypto winter
How Much Will BTC Be Worth on October 9, 2024?
How Much Will BTC Be Worth on October 9, 2024?
Bitcoin's shy uptrend
Bitcoin's shy uptrend
Powell did not scare crypto
Powell did not scare crypto
Bitcoin completes consolidation in a triangle
Bitcoin completes consolidation in a triangle
Bitcoin Is Still Gold. Although Digital One
Bitcoin Is Still Gold. Although Digital One
The bogged-down crypto market
The bogged-down crypto market

Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 59.6% 81 $16 850.61 2.23% 2.05% $323 880 775 090 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 60% 79 $1 264.86 4.07% 8.41% $154 786 411 293 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 96% 1 $0.999917 0.02% 0.08% $65 357 268 959 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 68.4% 67 $299.27 -1.26% 0.72% $47 873 891 086 BNB 7 days price change
5 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 92.8% 1 $0.999988 -0.01% -0.02% $43 305 846 022 USDC 7 days price change
6 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 92.8% 1 $1.000272 0.01% 0.02% $22 171 401 519 BUSD 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 67.2% 66 $0.400157 1.69% 6.60% $20 123 918 447 XRP 7 days price change
8 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 60.8% 85 $0.105031 1.44% 29.90% $13 934 589 528 DOGE 7 days price change
9 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 62.8% 81 $0.314538 1.02% 0.17% $10 833 319 810 ADA 7 days price change
10 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 91.2% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
11 Polygon (MATIC) MATIC Polygon predictions 66.8% 72 $0.868577 3.45% 1.53% $7 586 427 443 MATIC 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 68% 67 $5.39 1.58% 0.44% $6 144 181 845 DOT 7 days price change
13 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 96% 1 $0.999740 0.01% -0.01% $5 653 688 069 DAI 7 days price change
14 Litecoin (LTC) LTC Litecoin predictions 62.4% 74 $78.05 1.92% -0.16% $5 598 468 272 LTC 7 days price change
15 Wrapped TRON (WTRX) WTRX Wrapped TRON predictions 68.4% 68 $0.053816 0.24% 5.92% $5 471 826 904 WTRX 7 days price change

Be the first to receive Cryptocurrency Price Predictions and Forecasts daily

Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.

© 2015-2022 Crypto-Rating.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.