BTC Forecast from the President of El Salvador

We called the last review "Bloodbath or $20,000 Battle". As for the past week, there was not much blood this time, but the battle for $20,000, as predicted, did not subside. The week's low was fixed at $17,597, the maximum at $21,667, and the BTC/USD pair met Saturday, June 25, at $21,350. At this point, the total crypto market capitalization was $0.960 trillion ($0.895 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still not going to leave the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 11 points out of 100 possible (7 points a week ago).

The general mood of the market is fully consistent with this Extreme Fear. The Internet is talking again about the death of bitcoin. According to Google Trends, the number of search queries on this topic has returned to its maximum levels, close to December 2017. Recall that at that moment, approaching the coveted $20,000, the main cryptocurrency turned around and flew down, losing more than 40% of its value in a few days. The only difference with that long-standing situation is that bitcoin was approaching the $20,000 level from below then, and it is from above now. And the market was looking for a top then, and for a bottom now. Moreover, according to a number of influencers, it is not at all necessary that the bottom is at this particular mark.

So, according to Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital President, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, “so far, there are no signs of surrender, which usually forms the bottom of the bearish market”. According to this gold supporter, the $20,000 mark will be the same “bull trap” as the $30,000 level was before. “Nothing falls in a straight line. It's actually a very ordered crash in slow motion," Schiff said. Recall that he predicted back in May that bitcoin would test $8,000. And he suggested in mid-June that the minimum could be even lower, around $5,000.

According to the president of Euro Pacific Capital, the collapse of the cryptocurrency market will be good for the economy. Kevin O'Leary, co-host of the business TV show Shark Tank, made a similar point. He believes that one should not be afraid of the bankruptcy of large companies during the crypto winter. “This is good for all other companies as they will learn from this. I think we will soon see a wave of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency market. I don't know who it will be. Later you will recognize those who have taken a high-risk position. But I assure you I have seen this before. They have been destroyed, and that's good,” said the millionaire.

The InvestAnswers crypto channel, in turn, named 3 possible catalysts for a further market collapse. The BTC price may fall even more if MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor decides to sell the bitcoins in the company's reserves. In addition, the potential collapse of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and the problems of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital may also contribute to further capitulation of BTC. According to InvestAnswers, we should not forget about the possible sale of crypto assets by Tesla. MicroStrategy reported a $1.2 billion loss last week due to the fall of bitcoin. As for the Three Arrows Capital fund, it now has about $2.4 billion left in assets out of $18 billion.

Big problems are experienced not only by investors, but also by miners. Due to the fall in the price of BTC and the increase in computational complexity, the total return from mining is now 65% lower than the average for the year. At the same time, the efficiency of the Antminer S19 ASIC from Bitmain is 80% worse than the level of November 2021, and the popular S9 model has lost profitability altogether. This situation has led to the fact that mining companies are forced to sell their BTC holdings in order to pay off loans and cover current operating costs, which puts pressure on the market. Their remaining reserves are estimated at 46,000 coins (about $920 million). In the event that these bitcoins are also thrown into sale, quotes will certainly fall further down.

An analyst aka Capo, who had correctly predicted the collapse of the cryptocurrency market this year, updated his forecast. In his opinion, BTC expects a decline to $16,200, and ETH to $750. According to Capo, investors are fooling themselves into believing that a short-term rally means bitcoin is bottoming the cycle: “Bull trap. Funds from altcoins flow into BTC, which will also be sold, but a little later. There is no bottom yet,” he said.

According to another specialist, crypto strategist Kevin Svenson, bitcoin has a chance to bottom in the $17,000-18,000 range, after which a short-term rally to above $30,000 may occur. At the same time, although Svenson expects this short-term growth, he does not see the prerequisites for launching a new bull market in the near future: “Overcoming the main downward resistance is the main obstacle and the process may last until the end of the year.” According to the strategist, after the breakthrough of the diagonal resistance, bitcoin can trade in a narrow range for several months and start a new uptrend only by 2024 year.

Despite the low current rate of bitcoin, many participants in the crypto industry believe in its future growth. For example, there is a belief that BTC could reach $100,000 by 2025. One of those who supported such optimism was an analyst called PlanB, who built his forecasts based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model worked well for three years until March 2022, after which it failed.

The Daily Gwei creator Anthony Sassano and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin have recently criticized S2F, advising PlanB to delete their account. The analyst reacted to criticism with restraint. He said that in the aftermath of the crash, many are looking for scapegoats, including leaders. PlanB then presented a graph of five different BTC price prediction models. According to the illustration, the most accurate picture is given by estimates based on the complexity and cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. The S2F model, in turn, offers an overly optimistic view.

Another expert, Benjamin Cowen, proposed his bitcoin bottoming model. He believes that the bottom can be predicted based on the correlation of inflation, the S&P 500 stock index and the BTC price. The analyst argues that the S&P 500 index does not historically sink to the very bottom until inflation peaks and reverses. Accordingly, BTC cannot reach the bottom for the same reason. “Macroeconomic indicators look incredibly bleak at the moment. If you go back to the 1970s, you'll see a very similar type of move where the S&P bottomed just as inflation hit its first peak. By this point, the S&P was down about 50%,” writes Cowen.

And to conclude the review, one more “prediction model”, which we put in our humorous crypto life hacks section. It was presented by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” he wrote. For reference, there are 2,301 BTC in El Salvador's public bitcoin fund, purchased at an average price of $43,900. Thus, at the moment, the loss on them is about 55%. But, according to the "model" of Nayiba Bukele, this "trifle" should not be paid attention to. The main thing is to get the most out of life!