Bitcoin
BTC$57 397.14

5.51%

Ethereum
ETH$4 325.04

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BNB$609.29

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Bitcoin price moves toward $40K as on-chain and technical analysis favor bulls


14 Jun 2021

#Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is still 38% away from its all-time high but a handful of technical indicators suggest bulls are gathering strength. Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a bullish turn of events on June 13 as the price broke out to $39,252 but many analysts are still on the fence when it comes to determining whether the digital asset is ready to continue its uptrend. 

To date, the crypto market remains on edge and is two months removed from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $65,000. A market analysis from Delphi Digital identified a “major head and shoulders pattern” that could “spell more short term pain if BTC dives below $30,000.”

With that in mind, now is a good time to review some key data points to gain a greater perspective on where Bitcoin price could go next.

Short-term holders suffer losses

A 50% decrease in price over the past two months may seem extreme to those unfamiliar with the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, but it comes as no surprise to the long-term hodlers who have seen multiple drawdowns of an even larger magnitude over the last decade.  As seen in the chart, a drawdown of 70% or greater is not uncommon for BTC, especially following a significant run-up in price, hinting that the possibility for further pain is still a threat as bulls battle bears in the mid $30,000 range.

The rapidly falling prices sent new and old Bitcoin holders running for the sidelines, resulting in traders selling at a loss according to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data highlighted by cryptocurrency analyst filbfilb. 

In the past couple of days signs of a SOPR reset have appeared, indicating that average wallets are now selling at a profit again. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) has also reached its lowest level since the March 2020 sell-off initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The high levels of fear currently being experienced by a majority of traders have many sitting on the sidelines as concerns of further losses remain a legitimate possibility. For the contrarian investors, however, low scores on the index are a signal to “be greedy when others are fearful” as Warren Buffet would say and the chart above shows that buying during high fear moments tends to be a good entry-level.

Sentiment begins to rebound

While it’s true that Bitcoin has seen it’s price fall more than $30,000 over the past two months, it's important to note that the amount it has fallen as well as its current price are nearly double the previous all-time high set in 2017, shining a light on just how significant the rally has been over the past six months. On-chain analysis from Decentrader shows that an ‘oversold’ signal was recently triggered, “suggesting that BTC may soon be ready to turn around and move to the upside.”

The active addresses sentiment indicator compares the 28-day change in price, shown by the orange line, with the 28-day change in on-chain active addresses which is represented by the band of grey lines. The orange line moving from below the dotted green line back up into the active address change band is considered a bullish signal, and this most recently occurred on June 10, indicating the possibility of a turnaround in the market.

According to Rekt Capital, a popular analyst on Twitter, Bitcoin is still on a path to realize a new all-time high. For now, perhaps it's best to just take a break from staring at charts and worrying about which way Bitcoin will choose. The long-term outlook remains strong as countries like El Salvador have begun choosing BTC as legal tender and more people become interested in cryptocurrency.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 78.8% 42 $57 397.14 5.51% -0.13% $1 084 001 374 692 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 82.4% 32 $4 325.04 6.69% 3.38% $512 656 495 446 ETH 7 days price change
3 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 74.4% 53 $609.29 4.33% 7.07% $101 630 227 689 BNB 7 days price change
4 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 94.8% 1 $1.000997 0.02% -0.01% $73 194 134 956 USDT 7 days price change
5 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 69.2% 65 $203.84 7.44% -8.23% $61 976 513 439 SOL 7 days price change
6 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 67.2% 60 $1.59 5.99% -11.72% $52 852 892 795 ADA 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 74.4% 51 $0.987767 7.45% -5.41% $46 582 102 093 XRP 7 days price change
8 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 91.2% 2 $0.998878 -0.13% -0.10% $38 347 542 030 USDC 7 days price change
9 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 66% 75 $36.25 8.95% -9.51% $35 798 276 399 DOT 7 days price change
10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 62.4% 74 $0.205694 2.60% -7.52% $27 214 125 290 DOGE 7 days price change
11 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 66.8% 75 $112.35 3.84% -16.51% $25 147 340 195 AVAX 7 days price change
12 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 62% 77 $0.000039 3.61% -9.86% $21 537 353 661 SHIB 7 days price change
13 Crypto.com Chain (CRO) CRO Crypto.com Chain predictions 56% 90 $0.766272 1.87% 10.94% $19 358 331 922 CRO 7 days price change
14 Terra (LUNA) LUNA Terra predictions 64.8% 72 $49.02 8.15% 18.38% $19 258 363 664 LUNA 7 days price change
15 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) WBTC Wrapped Bitcoin predictions 74.4% 46 $56 525.74 5.34% -1.06% $14 327 926 572 WBTC 7 days price change

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