Bitcoin
BTC$66 661.99

-0.78%

Ethereum
ETH$3 078.67

-1.28%

Tether
USDT$1.000029

-0.03%

Binance Coin
BNB$573.51

-1.19%

Solana
SOL$170.51

-1.50%

USD Coin
USDC$1.000043

-0.01%

Bitcoin price moves toward $40K as on-chain and technical analysis favor bulls


14 Jun 2021

#Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is still 38% away from its all-time high but a handful of technical indicators suggest bulls are gathering strength. Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a bullish turn of events on June 13 as the price broke out to $39,252 but many analysts are still on the fence when it comes to determining whether the digital asset is ready to continue its uptrend. 

To date, the crypto market remains on edge and is two months removed from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $65,000. A market analysis from Delphi Digital identified a “major head and shoulders pattern” that could “spell more short term pain if BTC dives below $30,000.”

With that in mind, now is a good time to review some key data points to gain a greater perspective on where Bitcoin price could go next.

Short-term holders suffer losses

A 50% decrease in price over the past two months may seem extreme to those unfamiliar with the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, but it comes as no surprise to the long-term hodlers who have seen multiple drawdowns of an even larger magnitude over the last decade.  As seen in the chart, a drawdown of 70% or greater is not uncommon for BTC, especially following a significant run-up in price, hinting that the possibility for further pain is still a threat as bulls battle bears in the mid $30,000 range.

The rapidly falling prices sent new and old Bitcoin holders running for the sidelines, resulting in traders selling at a loss according to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data highlighted by cryptocurrency analyst filbfilb. 

In the past couple of days signs of a SOPR reset have appeared, indicating that average wallets are now selling at a profit again. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) has also reached its lowest level since the March 2020 sell-off initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The high levels of fear currently being experienced by a majority of traders have many sitting on the sidelines as concerns of further losses remain a legitimate possibility. For the contrarian investors, however, low scores on the index are a signal to “be greedy when others are fearful” as Warren Buffet would say and the chart above shows that buying during high fear moments tends to be a good entry-level.

Sentiment begins to rebound

While it’s true that Bitcoin has seen it’s price fall more than $30,000 over the past two months, it's important to note that the amount it has fallen as well as its current price are nearly double the previous all-time high set in 2017, shining a light on just how significant the rally has been over the past six months. On-chain analysis from Decentrader shows that an ‘oversold’ signal was recently triggered, “suggesting that BTC may soon be ready to turn around and move to the upside.”

The active addresses sentiment indicator compares the 28-day change in price, shown by the orange line, with the 28-day change in on-chain active addresses which is represented by the band of grey lines. The orange line moving from below the dotted green line back up into the active address change band is considered a bullish signal, and this most recently occurred on June 10, indicating the possibility of a turnaround in the market.

According to Rekt Capital, a popular analyst on Twitter, Bitcoin is still on a path to realize a new all-time high. For now, perhaps it's best to just take a break from staring at charts and worrying about which way Bitcoin will choose. The long-term outlook remains strong as countries like El Salvador have begun choosing BTC as legal tender and more people become interested in cryptocurrency.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 84.8% 19 $66 661.99 -0.78% 9.21% $1 313 286 357 219 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 88.4% 20 $3 078.67 -1.28% 5.59% $369 830 375 839 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 95.2% 1 $1.000029 -0.03% 0.04% $111 438 173 122 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 89.6% 6 $573.51 -1.19% -3.22% $84 642 569 477 BNB 7 days price change
5 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 75.2% 42 $170.51 -1.50% 19.27% $76 556 546 641 SOL 7 days price change
6 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 94% 1 $1.000043 -0.01% 0.01% $33 496 798 629 USDC 7 days price change
7 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 88.8% 8 $0.510333 -2.19% 2.41% $28 215 770 436 XRP 7 days price change
8 Toncoin (TON) TON Toncoin predictions 70.8% 65 $6.28 -2.41% -10.36% $21 813 613 872 TON 7 days price change
9 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 80% 30 $0.149658 -2.79% 6.73% $21 604 956 344 DOGE 7 days price change
10 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 86% 23 $0.465359 -3.02% 6.95% $16 604 076 150 ADA 7 days price change
11 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 80.4% 41 $0.000024 -4.04% 7.28% $13 986 369 705 SHIB 7 days price change
12 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 80% 38 $35.58 -4.98% 8.51% $13 620 879 971 AVAX 7 days price change
13 TRON (TRX) TRX TRON predictions 86% 21 $0.121132 -1.02% -4.68% $10 591 997 443 TRX 7 days price change
14 Wrapped TRON (WTRX) WTRX Wrapped TRON predictions 85.6% 18 $0.121054 -1.15% -4.68% $10 585 118 485 WTRX 7 days price change
15 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) WBTC Wrapped Bitcoin predictions 89.2% 18 $66 386.79 -0.80% 8.28% $10 322 918 427 WBTC 7 days price change

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