Bitcoin price is still 38% away from its all-time high but a handful of technical indicators suggest bulls are gathering strength. Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a bullish turn of events on June 13 as the price broke out to $39,252 but many analysts are still on the fence when it comes to determining whether the digital asset is ready to continue its uptrend.
To date, the crypto market remains on edge and is two months removed from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $65,000. A market analysis from Delphi Digital identified a “major head and shoulders pattern” that could “spell more short term pain if BTC dives below $30,000.”
With that in mind, now is a good time to review some key data points to gain a greater perspective on where Bitcoin price could go next.
A 50% decrease in price over the past two months may seem extreme to those unfamiliar with the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, but it comes as no surprise to the long-term hodlers who have seen multiple drawdowns of an even larger magnitude over the last decade. As seen in the chart, a drawdown of 70% or greater is not uncommon for BTC, especially following a significant run-up in price, hinting that the possibility for further pain is still a threat as bulls battle bears in the mid $30,000 range.
The rapidly falling prices sent new and old Bitcoin holders running for the sidelines, resulting in traders selling at a loss according to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data highlighted by cryptocurrency analyst filbfilb.
In the past couple of days signs of a SOPR reset have appeared, indicating that average wallets are now selling at a profit again. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) has also reached its lowest level since the March 2020 sell-off initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The high levels of fear currently being experienced by a majority of traders have many sitting on the sidelines as concerns of further losses remain a legitimate possibility. For the contrarian investors, however, low scores on the index are a signal to “be greedy when others are fearful” as Warren Buffet would say and the chart above shows that buying during high fear moments tends to be a good entry-level.
While it’s true that Bitcoin has seen it’s price fall more than $30,000 over the past two months, it's important to note that the amount it has fallen as well as its current price are nearly double the previous all-time high set in 2017, shining a light on just how significant the rally has been over the past six months. On-chain analysis from Decentrader shows that an ‘oversold’ signal was recently triggered, “suggesting that BTC may soon be ready to turn around and move to the upside.”
The active addresses sentiment indicator compares the 28-day change in price, shown by the orange line, with the 28-day change in on-chain active addresses which is represented by the band of grey lines. The orange line moving from below the dotted green line back up into the active address change band is considered a bullish signal, and this most recently occurred on June 10, indicating the possibility of a turnaround in the market.
According to Rekt Capital, a popular analyst on Twitter, Bitcoin is still on a path to realize a new all-time high. For now, perhaps it's best to just take a break from staring at charts and worrying about which way Bitcoin will choose. The long-term outlook remains strong as countries like El Salvador have begun choosing BTC as legal tender and more people become interested in cryptocurrency.
|#||Crypto||Prediction||Accuracy||CVIX||Price||24h||7d||Market Cap||7d price change|
|1||BTC||Bitcoin predictions||72.8%||51||$27 686.50||-1.54%||12.26%||$535 055 944 515|
|2||ETH||Ethereum predictions||82%||34||$1 753.83||-2.24%||5.65%||$214 622 976 485|
|3||USDT||Tether predictions||92.4%||1||$1.002131||0.08%||-0.07%||$77 601 370 004|
|4||BNB||Binance Coin predictions||77.2%||47||$324.49||-3.72%||0.92%||$51 234 239 201|
|5||USDC||USD Coin predictions||90.4%||2||$0.999458||0.08%||-0.04%||$34 703 015 524|
|6||XRP||XRP predictions||87.2%||17||$0.451417||-1.31%||23.74%||$23 000 119 507|
|7||HEX||HEX predictions||62.4%||82||$0.123358||18.48%||52.30%||$21 391 630 916|
|8||ADA||Cardano predictions||73.6%||46||$0.369965||-1.76%||12.89%||$12 844 876 045|
|9||STETH||Lido stETH predictions||94.4%||1||$2 941.39||-0.40%||-3.32%||$10 258 752 564|
|10||DOGE||Dogecoin predictions||68.8%||57||$0.075005||-1.31%||6.24%||$9 950 971 303|
|11||MATIC||Polygon predictions||71.2%||51||$1.12||-1.91%||-0.94%||$9 797 674 979|
|12||SOL||Solana predictions||70.4%||54||$21.69||-3.00%||10.97%||$8 322 389 970|
|13||BUSD||Binance USD predictions||94.4%||1||$0.999370||-0.05%||-0.07%||$8 058 942 746|
|14||DOT||Polkadot predictions||74%||51||$6.17||-2.34%||2.98%||$7 212 834 820|
|15||LTC||Litecoin predictions||68.4%||58||$87.92||8.34%||11.30%||$6 377 673 020|
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