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Bitcoin price moves toward $40K as on-chain and technical analysis favor bulls


14 Jun 2021

#Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is still 38% away from its all-time high but a handful of technical indicators suggest bulls are gathering strength. Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a bullish turn of events on June 13 as the price broke out to $39,252 but many analysts are still on the fence when it comes to determining whether the digital asset is ready to continue its uptrend. 

To date, the crypto market remains on edge and is two months removed from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $65,000. A market analysis from Delphi Digital identified a “major head and shoulders pattern” that could “spell more short term pain if BTC dives below $30,000.”

With that in mind, now is a good time to review some key data points to gain a greater perspective on where Bitcoin price could go next.

Short-term holders suffer losses

A 50% decrease in price over the past two months may seem extreme to those unfamiliar with the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, but it comes as no surprise to the long-term hodlers who have seen multiple drawdowns of an even larger magnitude over the last decade.  As seen in the chart, a drawdown of 70% or greater is not uncommon for BTC, especially following a significant run-up in price, hinting that the possibility for further pain is still a threat as bulls battle bears in the mid $30,000 range.

The rapidly falling prices sent new and old Bitcoin holders running for the sidelines, resulting in traders selling at a loss according to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data highlighted by cryptocurrency analyst filbfilb. 

In the past couple of days signs of a SOPR reset have appeared, indicating that average wallets are now selling at a profit again. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) has also reached its lowest level since the March 2020 sell-off initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The high levels of fear currently being experienced by a majority of traders have many sitting on the sidelines as concerns of further losses remain a legitimate possibility. For the contrarian investors, however, low scores on the index are a signal to “be greedy when others are fearful” as Warren Buffet would say and the chart above shows that buying during high fear moments tends to be a good entry-level.

Sentiment begins to rebound

While it’s true that Bitcoin has seen it’s price fall more than $30,000 over the past two months, it's important to note that the amount it has fallen as well as its current price are nearly double the previous all-time high set in 2017, shining a light on just how significant the rally has been over the past six months. On-chain analysis from Decentrader shows that an ‘oversold’ signal was recently triggered, “suggesting that BTC may soon be ready to turn around and move to the upside.”

The active addresses sentiment indicator compares the 28-day change in price, shown by the orange line, with the 28-day change in on-chain active addresses which is represented by the band of grey lines. The orange line moving from below the dotted green line back up into the active address change band is considered a bullish signal, and this most recently occurred on June 10, indicating the possibility of a turnaround in the market.

According to Rekt Capital, a popular analyst on Twitter, Bitcoin is still on a path to realize a new all-time high. For now, perhaps it's best to just take a break from staring at charts and worrying about which way Bitcoin will choose. The long-term outlook remains strong as countries like El Salvador have begun choosing BTC as legal tender and more people become interested in cryptocurrency.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 62.4% 82 $29 106.25 -2.42% 5.31% $554 291 732 800 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 60.4% 82 $1 948.76 -4.39% 2.87% $235 479 609 902 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 93.6% 1 $0.998927 0.01% 0.45% $74 133 574 134 USDT 7 days price change
4 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 92% 1 $1.000000 -0.02% -0.02% $52 342 870 112 USDC 7 days price change
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 60.4% 84 $295.00 -1.85% 22.08% $48 166 486 706 BNB 7 days price change
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 67.2% 71 $0.409415 -4.38% 13.13% $19 792 398 575 XRP 7 days price change
7 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 92% 1 $0.999245 -0.27% -0.42% $18 398 603 846 BUSD 7 days price change
8 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 65.2% 79 $0.514791 -8.42% 17.73% $17 375 510 992 ADA 7 days price change
9 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 63.2% 84 $50.79 -8.30% 15.69% $17 139 777 776 SOL 7 days price change
10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 62% 87 $0.084252 -5.17% 11.85% $11 177 788 099 DOGE 7 days price change
11 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 60.4% 78 $9.61 -8.87% 19.27% $9 486 356 576 DOT 7 days price change
12 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) WBTC Wrapped Bitcoin predictions 63.6% 82 $29 092.16 -2.40% 5.58% $8 144 434 333 WBTC 7 days price change
13 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 61.6% 82 $29.59 -11.64% 6.16% $7 963 113 848 AVAX 7 days price change
14 TRON (TRX) TRX TRON predictions 70.8% 55 $0.071826 -0.02% -1.60% $7 007 431 948 TRX 7 days price change
15 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 93.6% 1 $1.000124 0.04% 0% $6 501 256 168 DAI 7 days price change

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