Bitcoin
BTC$42 435.30

-3.82%

Ethereum
ETH$2 898.43

-7.49%

Cardano
ADA$2.23

-0.57%

Tether
USDT$1.001440

0.09%

Binance Coin
BNB$352.49

-7.00%

XRP
XRP$0.932568

-6.42%

Bitcoin open interest hits $8.8B as 45% of BTC options expire in 2 weeks


18 Jan 2021   #Bitcoin

Over the past two months the open interest on Bitcoin options has held reasonably steady even as the figure increased by 118% to reach $8.4 billion as (BTC) price rose to a new all-time high. The result of Bitcoin’s price appreciation and the rising open interest on BTC options has resulted in a historic $3.8 billion expiry set for Jan. 29.

To understand the potential impact of such a large expiry, investors should compare it to the volumes seen at spot exchanges. Although some data aggregators display over $50 billion to $100 billion in daily Bitcoin volume, a 2019 report authored by Bitwise Asset Management found that many exchanges employ a variety of questionable techniques to inflate trading volumes.

This is why when analyzing exchange volume, it’s better to source the figure from trusted data aggregators instead of relying on the data provided by the biggest exchanges. As the above data indicates, BTC’s spot volume at exchanges averaged $12 billion over the past 30 days, a 215% increase from the previous month. This means the upcoming $3.8 billion expiry translates to 35% of spot BTC daily average volume.

Exchanges offer monthly expiries, although some also hold weekly options for short-term contracts. Dec. 25, 2020 had the largest expiry on record as $2.4 billion worth of option contracts expired. This figure represented 31% of all open interest and shows how options are usually spread out throughout the year.

Data from Genesis Volatility shows that Deribit’s expiry calendar for Jan. 29 holds 94,060 BTC. That unusual concentration translates to 45% of its contracts set to expire in twelve days. A similar effect holds at the remaining exchanges, although Deribit has an 85% market share overall.

It is worth noting that not every option will trade at expiry as some of those strikes now sound unreasonable, especially considering there are less than two weeks left. The bullish $46,000 call options and above are now deemed worthless and the same has happened to the bearish put options below $28,000, as 68% of them are now effectively worthless. This means that only 39% of the $3.8 billion set to expire on Jan. 29 are worth exploring.

Analyzing open interest provides data from trades that have alreadyd passed, whereas the skew indicator monitors options in real time. This gauge is even more relevant as BTC was trading below $25,000 just thirty days ago. Therefore, the open interest near that level does not indicate bearishness.

When analyzing options, the 30% to 20% delta skew is the single most relevant gauge. This indicator compares call (buy) and put (sell) options side-by-side. A 10% delta skew indicates that call options are trading at a premium to the more bearish/neutral put options. On the other hand, a negative skew translates to a higher cost of downside protection and is a signal that traders are bearish. While a $3.8 billion options expiry is spine tingling, nearly 60% of the options are already deemed worthless. As for the remaining open interest, bulls are mainly in control because the recent price hike to a new all-time high obliterated most of the bearish options. With the expiry moving closer, a growing number of put options will lose their value if BTC remains above the $30,000 to $32,000 range.

Source


Related

Bitcoin bulls make a run on $45K after Twitter debuts crypto tipping
Buyers have returned to cryptocurrencies
FBS Launches New Crypto Account with 100+ New Instruments
Bitcoin in good shape as long as BTC price stays above $40K
Is it a Buy-the-dip moment for crypto?
Bitcoin bounces to $43K ahead of fresh crypto comments from SEC Chair Gensler
Bitcoin loses $44K support as stocks, Evergrande nerves hit BTC price
Cryptocurrency market rebound dries up, alarmingly recalling 2018
Bitcoin sees quite healthy consolidation on $200M BTC options expiry day

Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap Volume 24h
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 86% 27 $42 435.30 -3.82% -10.67% $798 843 453 346 $41 875 933 869
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 74.8% 50 $2 898.43 -7.49% -16.63% $341 018 107 532 $25 119 846 328
3 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 64% 78 $2.23 -0.57% -6.34% $71 411 624 055 $5 734 484 720
4 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 96% 1 $1.001440 0.09% 0.11% $68 691 485 942 $92 416 325 974
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 60.8% 78 $352.49 -7.00% -14.45% $59 266 206 180 $2 064 251 017
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 75.2% 48 $0.932568 -6.42% -12.98% $43 567 385 538 $4 641 985 825
7 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 63.2% 83 $139.49 -5.82% -1.32% $41 467 489 552 $4 041 527 553
8 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 91.6% 1 $1.000761 0.07% 0.05% $30 432 510 822 $3 991 490 878
9 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 62.8% 74 $30.77 -2.94% -9.08% $30 391 187 124 $3 785 910 016
10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 65.2% 78 $0.208918 -6.33% -14.44% $27 455 953 723 $2 219 973 271
11 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 63.2% 82 $73.45 -4.25% 12.05% $16 179 548 858 $2 391 193 014
12 Terra (LUNA) LUNA Terra predictions 68.8% 61 $34.85 -2.03% -0.58% $13 942 018 660 $2 307 928 114
13 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 95.6% 1 $1.000668 0.05% 0.05% $13 477 216 401 $6 991 450 944
14 UniSwap (UNI) UNI UniSwap predictions 65.2% 74 $19.64 -8.12% -20.80% $12 010 497 802 $461 226 982
15 Chainlink (LINK) LINK Chainlink predictions 68% 64 $22.80 -7.36% -19.93% $10 361 191 269 $1 641 630 892

Be the first to receive Cryptocurrency Price Predictions and Forecasts daily

Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.

© 2015-2021 Crypto-Rating.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.