Bitcoin
BTC$19 947.39

3.63%

Ethereum
ETH$1 351.01

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USDT$1.000139

0.01%

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USDC$0.999939

-0.01%

XRP
XRP$0.470361

5.01%

Bitcoin may lose $30K price level if stocks tank, analysts warn


24 Jun 2021

#Bitcoin

Downside risks for BTC price are also heightened due to the recent dollar bounce. The ghost of stock market crash is back again to haunt Bitcoin (BTC). It happened last in March 2020. Back then, the prospect of the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic led to lockdowns across developed and emerging economies. In turn, global stocks crashed in tandem, and Bitcoin lost half of its value in just two days.

Meanwhile, the U.S .dollar index, or DXY, which represents the greenback's strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, has now climbed by 8.78% to 102.992, its highest level since January 2017. The huge inverse correlation showed that investors dumped their stocks and Bitcoin holdings and sought safety in what they thought was a better haven: the greenback. 

More than a year later, Bitcoin and stock markets again wrestle with a similar bearish sentiment, this time led by a renewed demand for the U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone. Namely, the U.S. central bank announced Wednesday it will start hiking its benchmark interest rates by the end of 2023, a year earlier than planned. Lower interest rates helped to pull Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market out of their bearish slumber. The benchmark cryptocurrency jumped from $3,858 in March 2020 to almost $65,000 in April 2021 as the Fed pushed lending rates to the 0%-0.25% range.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index rose more than 95% to 4,257.16 from its mid-March 2020 peak. Dow Jones and Nasdaq rallied similarly, as shown in the chart below. And this is what happened after the Federal Reserve's rate-hike announcement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index jumped to its two-month high, hinting at a renewed appetite for the greenback in global markets. Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo said on Friday that a stock market crash coupled with a rising dollar could increase Bitcoin's bearish outlook. 

"Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety," he explained. 

Michael Burry, the head of Scion Asset Management, also sounded the alarm on an imminent Bitcoin and stock market crash, adding that when crypto markets fall from trillions, or when meme stocks fall from billions, the Main Street losses will approach the size of countries.

"The problem with crypto, as in most things, is the leverage," he tweeted. "If you don't know how much leverage is in crypto, you don't know anything about crypto."

Burry deleted his tweets later.

Some bullish hopes

Away from the price action, Bitcoin's adoption continues to grow, an upside catalyst that was missing during the March 2020 crash. On Friday, CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs has started trading Bitcoin Futures with Galaxy Digital, a crypto merchant bank headed by former hedge fund tycoon Mike Novogratz. The financial news service claimed that Goldman's call to hire Galaxy as its liquidity provider came in response to increasing pressure from its wealthy clients.

Damien Vanderwilt, co-president of Galaxy Digital, added that the mainstream adoption would help Bitcoin lower its infamous price volatility, paving the way for institutional players to join the crypto bandwagon. Excerpts from his interview with CNBC: "Once one bank is out there doing this, the other banks will have [fear of missing out] and they'll get on-boarded because their clients have been asking for it."

Earlier, other major financial and banking services, including Morgan Stanley, PayPal, and Bank of New York Mellon, also launched crypto-enabled services for their clients.

Is Bitcoin in a bear market? 

Referring to the question "are we in a bear market?" Woo said that Bitcoin adoption continues to look healthy despite the recent price drop. The analyst cited on-chain indicators to show an increasing user growth and capital injection in the Bitcoin market. He also noted that the recent Bitcoin sell-off merely transported BTC from weak hands to strong hands. 

Woo reminded: "My only concern for downside risk is if we get a major correction in equities which will pull BTC price downwards no matter what the on-chain fundamentals may suggest. Noticing USD strength on the DXY, which suggest some investors moving to safety in the USD."


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 87.6% 20 $19 947.39 3.63% -1.75% $382 369 238 889 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 63.6% 82 $1 351.01 3.89% -3.12% $165 698 908 342 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 92.4% 1 $1.000139 0.01% 0.01% $67 958 881 228 USDT 7 days price change
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 90.8% 15 $292.38 2.14% 2.98% $47 172 398 458 BNB 7 days price change
5 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 94.4% 1 $0.999939 -0.01% -0.01% $47 033 032 643 USDC 7 days price change
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 61.6% 86 $0.470361 5.01% -0.77% $23 471 346 889 XRP 7 days price change
7 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 92.4% 1 $1.000315 0.10% -0.03% $21 048 857 281 BUSD 7 days price change
8 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 74.8% 46 $0.431465 1.94% -5.77% $14 779 010 315 ADA 7 days price change
9 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 87.6% 22 $33.68 3.12% -3.95% $11 960 746 922 SOL 7 days price change
10 Lido stETH (STETH) STETH Lido stETH predictions 92.4% 1 $2 941.39 -0.40% -3.32% $10 258 752 564 STETH 7 days price change
11 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 88.8% 14 $0.060661 0.82% -3.25% $8 047 931 990 DOGE 7 days price change
12 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 65.2% 68 $6.47 2.65% -4.06% $7 260 332 773 DOT 7 days price change
13 Polygon (MATIC) MATIC Polygon predictions 67.2% 61 $0.828688 6.82% 5.76% $7 238 024 558 MATIC 7 days price change
14 Dai (DAI) DAI Dai predictions 91.6% 1 $0.999942 0.02% 0.01% $6 786 494 749 DAI 7 days price change
15 Wrapped TRON (WTRX) WTRX Wrapped TRON predictions 93.6% 5 $0.061398 0.40% 1.26% $6 242 711 894 WTRX 7 days price change

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