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Bitcoin gains strength as Friday’s $600M BTC options expiry approaches


20 Aug 2021   #Bitcoin

The Fed’s plan to taper a massive monthly economic stimulus pulled stocks down, but BTC ignored critical comments and looks strong heading into Friday’s options expiry. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break through the $48,000 resistance, but its price has remained flat even as Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neel Kashkari bashed the industry.

During an appearance at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Annual Summit on Aug. 17, Kashkari said: "So far, what I've seen is […] 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion."

Moreover, Kashkari specifically targeted Bitcoin when hementioned that its only use case has been funding illicit activities. Even with the current pullback, Bitcoin investors should be glad that the $44,000 support held because the Federal Reserve also signaled its intent to unwind its $120-billion monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

With less stimulus to support the markets, investors naturally become more risk-averse, which could have caused a retracement in Bitcoin’s price. With that in mind, traders should be less worried about Friday's $600 million Bitcoin options expiry because when the markets hold during potentially negative news, it can be interpreted as bullish. The call-to-put ratio currently stands at 1.43 and favors the neutral-to-bullish call options. This data reflects the 7,838 Bitcoin call options stacked against the 5,465 put options.

Bulls seem confident in the $44,000 support

Currently, there are less than 17 hours until Friday's expiry, and there is a slim chance that a $50,000 call option could be of any use. This means that even if Bitcoin trades at $49,900 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 20, these options become worthless. Therefore, after excluding the 3,700 ultra-bullish call options contracts above $50,000, the adjusted open interest for the neutral-to-bullish instruments stands at $190 million.

An expiry price below $48,000 reduces this figure to $138 million. If bears manage to keep Bitcoin trading below $46,000, only $67 million of these call option contracts will take part in Friday's expiry. Lastly, the bull's worst-case scenario happens below $44,000 because it wipes out 83% of the neutral-to-bullish call options to leave a meager $24 million open interest in their favor.

Bears need BTC price below $45,000 to balance the situation

Bears seem to have been taken by surprise because 73% of the protective put options have been placed below $44,000. Consequently, the instrument's open interest would be reduced to $65 million if the Bitcoin expiry takes place above that threshold, and this would give bears a $41 million advantage.

By keeping Bitcoin price below $45,000, bears might keep the open interest virtually balanced between call options and protective puts.

Ultimately, an expiry price above $46,000 increases the bull's advantage to $105 million, which seems like a good enough reason to justify increased buying pressure ahead of Friday's expiry.


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Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap Volume 24h
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 83.6% 24 $48 023.28 -0.71% 3.44% $903 705 648 774 $30 868 405 829
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 71.6% 52 $3 563.80 -1.89% 4.12% $418 950 530 113 $18 493 669 977
3 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 66% 64 $2.42 -2.23% -3.43% $77 683 489 177 $3 095 901 217
4 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 68.4% 70 $421.22 -2.55% -0.83% $70 821 892 729 $1 657 577 581
5 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 96% 1 $1.000499 0.02% 0.05% $68 288 037 795 $74 172 515 331
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 71.2% 56 $1.093567 -2.51% -3.05% $50 984 520 461 $3 018 193 479
7 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 57.2% 89 $146.88 -7.34% -21.00% $43 597 219 268 $3 263 512 936
8 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 63.2% 83 $36.36 1.92% 15.42% $35 909 826 746 $2 318 625 572
9 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 66.4% 65 $0.254974 3.69% 0.76% $33 480 789 211 $1 873 594 606
10 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 94.8% 1 $1.000186 0.02% 0.01% $29 230 519 112 $2 845 039 489
11 UniSwap (UNI) UNI UniSwap predictions 68.8% 56 $25.82 -4.67% 9.72% $15 791 177 382 $595 594 004
12 Terra (LUNA) LUNA Terra predictions 68% 67 $36.20 -0.80% 12.70% $14 549 248 511 $1 555 371 086
13 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 69.2% 69 $64.76 6.83% 48.17% $14 265 392 957 $2 603 032 868
14 Chainlink (LINK) LINK Chainlink predictions 74% 56 $29.85 -5.29% 4.13% $13 491 251 604 $1 523 058 445
15 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 96% 1 $1.000197 0.01% 0.02% $12 747 342 580 $6 385 206 639

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