The Fed’s plan to taper a massive monthly economic stimulus pulled stocks down, but BTC ignored critical comments and looks strong heading into Friday’s options expiry. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break through the $48,000 resistance, but its price has remained flat even as Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neel Kashkari bashed the industry.
During an appearance at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Annual Summit on Aug. 17, Kashkari said: "So far, what I've seen is […] 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion."
Moreover, Kashkari specifically targeted Bitcoin when hementioned that its only use case has been funding illicit activities. Even with the current pullback, Bitcoin investors should be glad that the $44,000 support held because the Federal Reserve also signaled its intent to unwind its $120-billion monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.
With less stimulus to support the markets, investors naturally become more risk-averse, which could have caused a retracement in Bitcoin’s price. With that in mind, traders should be less worried about Friday's $600 million Bitcoin options expiry because when the markets hold during potentially negative news, it can be interpreted as bullish. The call-to-put ratio currently stands at 1.43 and favors the neutral-to-bullish call options. This data reflects the 7,838 Bitcoin call options stacked against the 5,465 put options.
Currently, there are less than 17 hours until Friday's expiry, and there is a slim chance that a $50,000 call option could be of any use. This means that even if Bitcoin trades at $49,900 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 20, these options become worthless. Therefore, after excluding the 3,700 ultra-bullish call options contracts above $50,000, the adjusted open interest for the neutral-to-bullish instruments stands at $190 million.
An expiry price below $48,000 reduces this figure to $138 million. If bears manage to keep Bitcoin trading below $46,000, only $67 million of these call option contracts will take part in Friday's expiry. Lastly, the bull's worst-case scenario happens below $44,000 because it wipes out 83% of the neutral-to-bullish call options to leave a meager $24 million open interest in their favor.
Bears seem to have been taken by surprise because 73% of the protective put options have been placed below $44,000. Consequently, the instrument's open interest would be reduced to $65 million if the Bitcoin expiry takes place above that threshold, and this would give bears a $41 million advantage.
By keeping Bitcoin price below $45,000, bears might keep the open interest virtually balanced between call options and protective puts.
Ultimately, an expiry price above $46,000 increases the bull's advantage to $105 million, which seems like a good enough reason to justify increased buying pressure ahead of Friday's expiry.
|#||Crypto||Prediction||Accuracy||CVIX||Price||24h||7d||Market Cap||7d price change|
|1||BTC||Bitcoin predictions||70%||62||$38 877.56||-7.74%||-7.67%||$736 181 998 656|
|2||ETH||Ethereum predictions||63.2%||78||$2 846.65||-9.53%||-11.39%||$339 462 913 103|
|3||USDT||Tether predictions||92.8%||1||$1.000201||-0.01%||-0.02%||$78 290 326 799|
|4||BNB||Binance Coin predictions||69.6%||56||$426.69||-8.19%||-9.55%||$70 454 015 232|
|5||USDC||USD Coin predictions||92.8%||1||$0.999831||0%||0.01%||$42 379 408 068|
|6||ADA||Cardano predictions||72.8%||49||$1.22||-9.99%||-1.49%||$40 782 615 526|
|7||SOL||Solana predictions||60.4%||87||$121.85||-11.55%||-15.01%||$38 324 736 333|
|8||XRP||XRP predictions||72.4%||59||$0.687990||-7.42%||-9.37%||$32 791 736 353|
|9||LUNA||Terra predictions||72.4%||58||$75.94||-7.53%||-1.95%||$27 064 805 569|
|10||DOT||Polkadot predictions||76.4%||48||$22.32||-9.11%||-15.35%||$22 041 526 314|
|11||DOGE||Dogecoin predictions||76.4%||50||$0.153582||-6.90%||-18.71%||$20 375 859 355|
|12||AVAX||Avalanche predictions||62.4%||77||$75.42||-11.29%||-14.66%||$18 427 649 915|
|13||BUSD||Binance USD predictions||94.4%||1||$1.000463||0.19%||0.09%||$14 239 613 244|
|14||SHIB||SHIBA INU predictions||66%||68||$0.000026||-8.11%||-16.56%||$14 062 977 878|
|15||MATIC||Polygon predictions||67.6%||62||$1.88||-10.07%||-15.01%||$13 961 640 892|
Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.
© 2015-2022 Crypto-Rating.com
The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.