Bitcoin
BTC$30 326.91

1.12%

Ethereum
ETH$2 076.58

2.21%

Tether
USDT$0.999001

0.01%

USD Coin
USDC$1.000230

-0.02%

Binance Coin
BNB$304.44

2.05%

XRP
XRP$0.435585

2.31%

Bitcoin bulls may ignore Friday’s $730M options expiry by saving their energy for $40K


04 Feb 2022

#Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is no longer in reach of $40,000, but data shows bulls are willing to take a few short-term losses in order to strengthen their next run at the key resistance level. The past few months have been less than pleasant for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. Persistent comments from the United States Federal Reserve hint at plans to raise interest rates in 2022 and thi is causing investors to seek protection in inflation-protected bonds.

The monetary authority signaled its intention to substantially raise the benchmark interest rate and they will also gradually reduce the monthly purchase of debt assets.

Even though some crypto investors deem Bitcoin digital scarcity as inflationary protection, that does not change its volatility. In turn, it causes the asset price to move in tandem with risk markets.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD (right) vs. Russell 2000 index (left)

The above chart shows Bitcoin price in blue stacked against the smaller U.S. listed companies, as measured by the Russell 2000 equity markets index. Unlike the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Index, this benchmark excludes those tech giants. Thus, the smaller companies are usually considered riskier and are more impacted when investors fear an economic downturn.

However, the negative performance did not scare investors as the Canada-based Purpose Bitcoin ETF attracted over $38 million worth of Bitcoin this Tuesday, its third-largest daily inflow to date. The fund now holds 31,032 BTC, equivalent to $1.2 billion.

Regardless of investors' sentiment, Bitcoin bulls could face a $120 million loss if BTC price moves below $36,000 on Friday's options expiry.

$730 million in options expire on Feb. 4

According to Friday's options expiry open interest, Bitcoin bulls placed heavy bets between $40,000 and $44,000. These levels might seem optimistic right now, but Bitcoin was trading above $42,000 two weeks ago. At first sight, the $430 million call (buy) options dominate the $300 million put (sell) instruments, but the 1.43 call-to-put ratio does not really tell the whole story. For example, the 14% price drop over the past two weeks wiped out most bullish bets.

A call option gives the buyer a right to buy BTC at a fixed price at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4. However, if the market is trading below that price, there is no value in holding that derivative contract, so its value goes to zero.

Therefore, if Bitcoin remains below $37,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4, only $34 million of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry.

Bears will fight to keep Bitcoin below $37,000

Here are the three most likely scenarios for Friday's options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the active quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts varies:

This crude estimate considers call options used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bulls need $38,000 to balance the scales

A mere 3% price pump from the current $36,900 level is enough for Bitcoin bulls to avoid a $120 million loss on the Feb. 4 options expiry. Still, the same rationale applies to Bitcoin bears because pinning BTC below $37,000 can easily cause them to secure a $120 million profit.

Considering the short-term negative sentiment caused by tighter macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin bulls should pace their energy for a sustainable recovery to $40,000 and higher instead of wasting efforts right now. Therefore, options markets data slightly favor the put (sell) options.


Related

Bitcoin’s short-term upward channel
Bitcoin’s short-term upward channel
Has Bitcoin reached the bottom?
Has Bitcoin reached the bottom?
Bitcoin's Price Plunges Below $34,000
Bitcoin's Price Plunges Below $34,000
Bitcoin stabilised but has trouble to reverse strongly
Bitcoin stabilised but has trouble to reverse strongly
Bitcoin will fall until the bulls capitulate
Bitcoin will fall until the bulls capitulate
The culmination of the battle for the trend in Bitcoin
The culmination of the battle for the trend in Bitcoin
Bitcoin undecided on a scenario for May
Bitcoin undecided on a scenario for May
Bitcoin: How the $1 million rally begins
Bitcoin: How the $1 million rally begins
Bitcoin's last hope for $38K
Bitcoin's last hope for $38K

Top Cryptocurrencies with Price Predictions

# Crypto Prediction Accuracy CVIX Price 24h 7d Market Cap 7d price change
1 Bitcoin (BTC) BTC Bitcoin predictions 65.6% 74 $30 326.91 1.12% -1.69% $577 507 167 326 BTC 7 days price change
2 Ethereum (ETH) ETH Ethereum predictions 66.4% 75 $2 076.58 2.21% -10.32% $250 891 465 462 ETH 7 days price change
3 Tether (USDT) USDT Tether predictions 96% 1 $0.999001 0.01% -0.08% $75 676 462 108 USDT 7 days price change
4 USD Coin (USDC) USDC USD Coin predictions 96% 1 $1.000230 -0.02% -0.04% $52 257 987 348 USDC 7 days price change
5 Binance Coin (BNB) BNB Binance Coin predictions 65.6% 71 $304.44 2.05% -3.10% $49 708 837 503 BNB 7 days price change
6 XRP (XRP) XRP XRP predictions 66.8% 66 $0.435585 2.31% -13.81% $21 057 536 595 XRP 7 days price change
7 Cardano (ADA) ADA Cardano predictions 68.8% 66 $0.575630 2.12% -8.16% $19 421 209 986 ADA 7 days price change
8 Solana (SOL) SOL Solana predictions 63.2% 76 $56.43 3.88% -13.30% $19 038 552 817 SOL 7 days price change
9 Binance USD (BUSD) BUSD Binance USD predictions 96% 1 $1.002005 0.22% 0.35% $18 231 060 479 BUSD 7 days price change
10 Dogecoin (DOGE) DOGE Dogecoin predictions 62.4% 73 $0.089988 2.40% -16.42% $11 938 784 018 DOGE 7 days price change
11 Polkadot (DOT) DOT Polkadot predictions 67.2% 74 $11.01 1.97% -0.91% $10 874 092 462 DOT 7 days price change
12 Avalanche (AVAX) AVAX Avalanche predictions 66.4% 75 $34.13 2.44% -22.27% $9 183 931 187 AVAX 7 days price change
13 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) WBTC Wrapped Bitcoin predictions 67.2% 74 $30 349.83 1.15% -1.21% $8 599 743 334 WBTC 7 days price change
14 TRON (TRX) TRX TRON predictions 71.6% 60 $0.072402 4.12% -4.60% $7 070 299 328 TRX 7 days price change
15 SHIBA INU (SHIB) SHIB SHIBA INU predictions 64.8% 75 $0.000013 4.03% -21.64% $6 883 934 346 SHIB 7 days price change

Be the first to receive Cryptocurrency Price Predictions and Forecasts daily

Get cryptocurrency price predictions, forecasts with analysis and news right to your inbox.

© 2015-2022 Crypto-Rating.com

The usage of this website constitutes acceptance of the following legal information. Any contracts of financial instruments offered to conclude bear high risks and may result in the full loss of the deposited funds. Prior to making transactions one should get acquainted with the risks to which they relate. All the information featured on the website, including information about the cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is intended solely for informational purposes, is not a means of advertising them, and doesn't imply direct instructions for investing. Crypto Rating shall not be liable for any loss, including unlimited loss of funds, which may arise directly or indirectly from the usage of this information. The editorial staff of the website does not bear any responsibility whatsoever for the content of the comments or reviews made by the site users about cryptocurrencies. The entire responsibility for the contents rests with the authors. Reprint of the materials is available only with the permission of the editorial staff.