Despite the controversy and negativity that surrounded Bitcoin SV (BSV) at the beginning of 2020, which also coincided with so far the biggest bull rally of the year that saw the altcoin gaining 440% in little over a month - a feat that even some DeFi tokens would be jealous of - BSV has proven its resilience at the time of market crisis in March as it managed to steer clear of “death zone” beneath $80, although it did touch it with the lower wick of the weekly candle.
1-week BSV/USDT chart
Nevertheless, BSV managed not to fall beneath the macro support line and kept on chugging to the upside, making higher lows on the way. It’s interesting to note that on this time frame, Bitcoin SV is actually drawing a broadening wedge pattern, which is widely considered to be a bearish pattern that should alarm traders, especially considering that the cryptocurrency market has entered September with a bang, so to speak, by tanking around 20% across the board, including BSV that lost 18% against USD in the past seven days, and 26% in a month that was quite fruitful for the majority of other altcoins.
BSV performance profile
Before the sudden crash, Bitcoin SV was hanging on the edge of profitability on the yearly scale, but, as you can see, it’s flashing red, providing more weight to the prediction that sees BSV going below $120, thus breaking the wedge to the downside.
Only two ways to go for Bitcoin SV right now
We see that the price is toying with the 50-period EMA on this time frame, giving mixed signals regarding its intention to move in either direction. Another worrying sign comes from MACD that depicts the shortness of the recent bullish phase and the danger of the indicator descending into the bearish territory that would be devastating for those who, for some reason, went long on BSV, expecting that it would mimic the behavior of the DeFi market and go on another rally itself. However, the chance remains that MACD would get rejected near the zero line and open a window of opportunity for the buyers to get the price back above $200 - $240.
On the daily time frame, we see how BSV has been struggling to get past the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, and now dropped below 0.236 ($170) and back to the area of initial recovery after the coronavirus crash with $142 serving a strong support level throughout the period that followed.
1-day BSV/USDT chart
Since there are little to no factors, apart from the overall sentiment among market participants, that could nurture the instant reversal and the subsequent rally to a new higher high, we predict that Bitcoin Cash would experience either a quick but short 12% recovery to $180, where it’s likely to start consolidating for a while, or another episode of price depreciation that would see BSV going down by 23% and finding support near $120, and in doing so, rewinding more than six months of price action to the middle of March.
At the moment, the second scenario seems to be more likely because MACD is going further south, having already rejected the bullish crossover once. Giving that MACD’s support stands way down at -40, the rollback to the March price levels is conceivable.
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